Polling Misses Shift Toward Democrats in 2026

Pennsylvania pollster Chris Borick explains why surveys struggled to capture voter sentiment in the recent midterm elections.

Updated on Nov. 8, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of a tilted analog gauge with an off-center needle against a deep red field. — Democrats outperformed pollster predictions in last week's midterms once undersampling was adjusted for, according to Lehigh University's Chris Borick. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Democrats outperformed pollster predictions in last week's midterm elections once adjustments for undersampling were applied, according to Chris Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory. The 2026 midterm cycle polling otherwise appeared close to the mark.

Why it matters

Accurate polling depends on reaching a representative cross-section of voters, and undersampling of certain groups can skew results. Borick's analysis highlights the difficulty pollsters face as some voters become less willing to take part in surveys.

Pollsters weighted survey responses to correct for undersampling of Democratic voters, a pattern first seen in 2012. The extraction does not provide specific vote margins or weighting percentages.

The players

Chris Borick

Director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, a Pennsylvania polling and survey research center that studies public opinion in the state.

Donald Trump

President of the United States, whose public criticism of political polls has been cited as contributing to reduced poll participation among his supporters.

The details

Borick said polls are snapshots that reveal public perceptions at a moment in time. He noted that Republicans and MAGA supporters have become increasingly unwilling to participate in polls, a trend he linked in part to President Trump's remarks criticizing political polls.

2012: Democratic voters were undersampled in the presidential election.
Early November 2026: Midterm elections were held, with Democrats outperforming pollster predictions after adjustments.

Political Context

The undersampling of Democratic voters first documented in the 2012 presidential election recurred in the 2026 midterm cycle, indicating a persistent challenge for pollsters. Borick's analysis ties this pattern to declining survey participation among Republican and MAGA-aligned voters.

Polling results shape how campaigns allocate resources and how voters interpret the state of a race. Readers evaluating future poll numbers can consider whether the sample reflects the full electorate.

The takeaway

Polls are snapshots rather than predictions, and their accuracy depends heavily on who chooses to respond. Weighting adjustments can narrow gaps but cannot fully eliminate them.