Republicans Have Taken Leads in Pennsylvania Senate Races
New polling data shows GOP candidates ahead in the 36th and 40th Senatorial Districts.
Updated on Sept. 22, 2026 in Elections
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State Navigate released survey results indicating Republican candidates are currently leading in two competitive Pennsylvania state Senate contests. The findings highlight shifting voter preferences in districts that previously supported Josh Shapiro.
Why it matters
These results provide insight into the legislative balance of power in Pennsylvania ahead of the upcoming general election. The polls suggest Republicans are maintaining momentum in key battleground districts.
The survey recorded 915 respondents in the 36th District with a 3.2% margin of error and 1,004 respondents in the 40th District with a 3.1% margin of error. Results were weighted to reflect the demographics of the November 2026 electorate.
The players
Tom Jones
He is a Republican candidate currently seeking election in the 36th Senatorial District.
James Malone
He is the candidate challenging the Republican lead in the 36th Senatorial District.
Rosemary Brown
She is a Republican candidate currently polling ahead in the 40th Senatorial District.
Brian Wrightson
He is the candidate running for the state Senate seat in the 40th Senatorial District.
Josh Shapiro
He is the Governor of Pennsylvania whose 2022 performance serves as a benchmark for district voter trends.
The details
Tom Jones leads James Malone in the 36th Senatorial District, while Rosemary Brown maintains a slight advantage over Brian Wrightson in the 40th Senatorial District. The data was gathered by AllianceForge, which sent text messages to voters directing them to an online survey to capture current sentiment.
Timeline
State Navigate conducted the voter surveys from September 11-13, 2026.
Pennsylvania voters will head to the polls for the general election on November 3, 2026.
Political Context
Opponents and Democratic strategists often argue that these snapshots reflect short-term polling volatility rather than definitive shifts in district ideology. Critics emphasize that historical voting patterns for statewide figures like Josh Shapiro suggest that deep-blue or purple districts remain competitive despite current survey leads.
Residents in the 36th and 40th Districts can expect increased campaign messaging and outreach as candidates push to secure voters before November. These results indicate the potential for legislative turnover that could influence local policy and state funding allocations.
The takeaway
Voters should be aware that polling is a measure of sentiment and not an official election result. Monitoring local campaign platforms in the coming weeks will provide the clearest view of how these races may impact the state legislature.
What happens next
Pennsylvania voters will cast their final ballots in the general election on November 3, 2026.
Further reading
For more information on upcoming contests, visit the Pennsylvania Elections page.
Live Poll
Do you trust local polling to accurately predict the outcome of your state legislative races?
