Strong El Niño Will Impact Bend This Winter

The National Weather Service anticipates a severe El Niño event that may drive higher snowfall for local ski areas.

Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in Current Conditions

Snow-covered volcanic mountain peaks under heavy storm clouds in the Pacific Northwest. — The National Weather Service projects a strong El Niño event this winter, likely increasing snowfall across the Cascades in Oregon. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Forecasters project a 75% chance that this winter's El Niño event will be the strongest recorded in the Pacific since 1950. The weather pattern is expected to drive increased storm activity throughout the Pacific Northwest through the upcoming season.

Why it matters

Strong El Niño conditions shift atmospheric pressure to push more storms into the region, potentially reversing the trend of historically low snowfall seen in the 2025-26 season. This shift is critical for water management and winter recreation across the Cascades.

Mt. Bachelor has recorded an average of 427 inches of snowfall during previous Super El Niño years, a benchmark that historically exceeds baseline snowfall. Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are expected to reach their peak in December or January.

The players

National Weather Service

This federal agency is responsible for providing weather forecasts, warnings of hazardous weather, and climate data to the United States.

Mt. Bachelor Ski Area

This major resort located in the Cascade Range is a central hub for winter recreation and snowfall data collection near Bend.

The details

The phenomenon originates from warming waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which researchers modeled for the 2025 Oregon Climate Assessment. As ocean surface temperatures continue to rise beyond historical levels, the resulting weather patterns are expected to significantly alter storm tracks in Oregon.

1950 marks the start of standardized record-keeping for El Niño events.
Previous Super El Niño seasons occurred during 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016.
The 2025-26 season recorded historically low snowfall totals across Oregon.
December or January represents the typical peak for Pacific Ocean temperatures.
This winter serves as the anticipated duration for the current El Niño event.

Seasonal Patterns

The current forecast follows a trajectory set by previous Super El Niño events like the 1997-1998 season. These patterns illustrate a shift from the historically low snowfall levels recorded in the 2025-26 season to potentially record-breaking precipitation.

Residents in the Bend area should prepare for potentially heavy winter precipitation and increased storm activity in the Cascades. Travelers heading to mountain passes should monitor official safety advisories as the region manages the transition from recent low-snowfall years.

The takeaway

Winter recreation enthusiasts should adjust their expectations based on the likelihood of higher snowfall compared to last year. Long-term climate data indicates that while Oregon has warmed by three degrees since the early 20th century, these intense weather patterns still drive significant shifts.