Christine Drazan Led Tina Kotek in Recent Oregon Poll

A new survey shows Republican Christine Drazan holding a two-point lead over Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek.

Updated on Sept. 30, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of the Oregon State Capitol dome, evoking the gravity of the gubernatorial race. — Republican Christine Drazan leads Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek 46% to 44% in a recent Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research poll of likely voters. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Does a candidate's stance on abortion access influence your decision on who to vote for?

Christine Drazan leads Tina Kotek 46% to 44% in a recent Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research poll of 915 likely voters. The race remains tight as the state approaches the upcoming election cycle.

Why it matters

This poll highlights the competitive nature of the gubernatorial race in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. The candidates are currently neck-and-neck as they enter the final weeks of campaigning.

The poll surveyed 915 likely voters between September 17 and September 27, 2026. Findings show 46% support for Christine Drazan and 44% for Tina Kotek, with a 3.24% margin of error.

The players

Christine Drazan

She is a Republican politician and the primary challenger in the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial race.

Tina Kotek

She is the Democratic governor of Oregon seeking re-election to the state's highest office.

Brett Smith

He is a third-party candidate currently polling at 3% in the gubernatorial race.

The details

Christine Drazan has raised $11.1 million since January 2025, while Tina Kotek has brought in approximately $13.6 million in the same period. Kotek previously signed House Bill 4127 to secure permanent state tax funding for Planned Parenthood.

1982: The last time a Republican won a gubernatorial race in Oregon.
2022: The previous gubernatorial contest between Drazan and Kotek.
January 2025: The start of the current campaign fundraising period.
September 17-27, 2026: The window when the poll of likely voters was conducted.
October 2026: Ballots are expected to go out in approximately two weeks.

Remote Work
Sept. 24
Kotek and Drazan Debated at 2026 Oregon Competitiveness Summit
Philanthropy
Sept. 29
Jane Fonda Donated to Tina Kotek Campaign
Elections
Sept. 25
Oregon Officials Issued Election Mail Guidance

Political Context

This race tests whether Oregon will break its four-decade streak of Democratic victories established by the 1982 Oregon gubernatorial election. The outcome will signal whether the state is shifting away from its long-standing partisan preference.

The gubernatorial race will determine the state's path on future legislation, such as tax funding for public services and healthcare. Voters should prepare for an influx of campaign messaging as ballots are sent out across Oregon soon.

The takeaway

Voters should track individual policy differences between the candidates to understand the potential impact on future state tax allocations. The narrow polling margin suggests that turnout will be the decisive factor in this election.