Youngstown May See First Snow Friday to Saturday
Long-range forecast models suggest the area's first snowflakes could arrive later this week, though accumulation remains uncertain.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Forecasts
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Long-range models hint at possible first snowfall in the Youngstown area between Friday and Saturday. The GFS model shows a more likely chance of snow, while the ECMWF model trends warmer with precipitation remaining rain or mixed.
Why it matters
Accumulation is unlikely to be high, if any at all, because the ground has been warm. The first snow this year would arrive later than the typical November timing for the area.
The forecast relies on GFS and ECMWF long-range model output, which conflict on whether precipitation will be snow or rain. Average first measurable snowfall in Youngstown is Nov. 4, so a Friday-to-Saturday event would run later than normal; how much would accumulate is still unknown.
The details
The GFS model shows a more likely chance of snowfall, while the ECMWF model trends warmer, with precipitation remaining as rain or mixed. Snowflakes could start falling sometime between Friday and Saturday, but forecasters say it is too early to forecast accumulation.
Timeline
Oct. 2, 2003: Earliest measurable snowfall on record in Youngstown, at 0.1 inches.
Nov. 4: Average first measurable snowfall in Youngstown.
Nov. 9: Last year's first measurable snowfall, about 0.2 inches.
Nov. 10: Last year's first snowfall over 1 inch, during a lake-effect event.
Friday to Saturday, week of Nov. 6: Possible first snowflakes per long-range models.
Seasonal Patterns
Youngstown's average first measurable snowfall falls on Nov. 4, and a possible event on Friday to Saturday would arrive later than that benchmark. Last season's 50 inches of snow, the most since 2020-21, sat right around the Valley's 49.5-inch Dec-Feb average.
Residents should expect possible flurries and plan for travel changes on Friday or Saturday if snow materializes. Because accumulation is not yet forecast, drivers should check updated forecasts before heading out.
The takeaway
Even with a later-than-usual start, forecasters caution that the first snow is not yet a sure thing, so checking updated forecasts is the best way to plan. Watch for revisions as the models converge closer to the weekend.
What happens next
Forecasters will refine the timing and amount of any Friday-to-Saturday snow as the models update closer to the event.
Further reading
For the latest outlooks on the coming cold season, see Forecasts in our weather and disaster section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by WKBN.
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