Granite State Poll Showed Tight Gubernatorial Race
A new University of New Hampshire poll finds Cinde Warmington and Kelly Ayotte locked in a statistical tie.
Updated on Sept. 24, 2026 in Elections
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The Granite State Poll revealed that gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington has narrowed the gap with Kelly Ayotte to within four percentage points. Warmington saw her support increase by six points since August, putting her in a statistical tie for the upcoming election.
Why it matters
The survey results indicate heightened competitiveness in key New Hampshire races heading into the final stretch of the election cycle. These trends could signal broader shifts in voter sentiment as both parties vie for control of the legislature and Executive Council.
The poll surveyed 1,542 people, including 1,418 likely voters, between September 17 and September 21. Respondents showed a plurality of support for a proposal that would cap local education spending.
The players
Cinde Warmington
She is a candidate for governor of New Hampshire who has seen her polling numbers increase by six points since August.
Kelly Ayotte
She is a gubernatorial candidate currently locked in a statistical tie with her opponent in the latest state poll.
Chris Pappas
He is a U.S. Senate candidate currently leading in the polls against his opponent, John E. Sununu.
Stefany Shaheen
She is a candidate for the first congressional district currently tied in polling against Anthony DiLorenzo.
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
This institution is responsible for conducting the Granite State Poll via online invitations to its established panel.
The details
In addition to the gubernatorial race, the poll showed Democrats leading in contests for the state legislature and Executive Council. U.S. Senate candidate Chris Pappas currently holds a lead over John E. Sununu, while the race for the first congressional district between Stefany Shaheen and Anthony DiLorenzo remains tied.
Timeline
August 2026 marked Cinde Warmington's previous polling position.
The University of New Hampshire conducted the survey from September 17 to September 21, 2026.
The general election is scheduled for November 2026.
Political Context
While these numbers provide optimism for Democrats, the Republican opposition maintains that their platform on economic issues will resonate with voters in November. The GOP has prioritized arguments against the proposed cap on local education spending, citing concerns over long-term school funding.
Voters across the state are seeing increased campaign activity as candidates work to break the current ties in key races. Residents should prepare for heightened political advertising and outreach efforts as the November general election approaches.
The takeaway
Polls this close indicate that voter turnout in November will be the deciding factor for New Hampshire's executive and legislative seats. Voters should ensure their registration is current and review candidate positions on the local education spending cap before casting their ballots.
Further reading
For more information on state legislative and federal races, visit our Elections coverage.
More information
Review the full Granite State Poll tabular results for additional demographic breakdowns.
Source note: This article includes information reported by InDepthNH.
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