El Niño to Bring Warm Winter to Minnesota
Federal forecasters expect above-average temperatures and reduced snowfall to impact the coming winter season.
Updated on Oct. 31, 2026 in Current Conditions
Live Poll
Do you plan to change your winter outdoor activity plans due to warmer temperature forecasts?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources forecast warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average snowfall for Minnesota this winter. A 'Super' El Niño pattern is expected to drive these conditions through the winter 2026-27 season.
Why it matters
The shift in weather patterns may disrupt traditional outdoor activities as temperatures trend higher across the northern U.S. Business owners in Northern Minnesota are monitoring these forecasts due to their reliance on cold conditions for seasonal ice fishing operations.
A 'Super' El Niño pattern is currently shifting the Pacific jet stream south and eastward across the region. While Minnesota waters have produced ice during every recorded El Niño year, historical data shows top 10 warmest winters occurred during 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
The players
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
This federal agency provides science-based weather forecasts and climate monitoring for the United States.
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources
This state agency manages the natural resources of Minnesota, including state waters, wildlife, and outdoor recreation.
The details
El Niño patterns influence local weather by stretching the Pacific jet stream. Business owners near Lake of the Woods, including at Border View Lodge, remain concerned that warming trends could shorten the season typically used by 300 to 400 daily winter visitors.
Timeline
1982-83: El Niño year with top 10 warmest winter temperatures.
1991-92: El Niño year with top 10 warmest winter temperatures.
1997-98: El Niño year with top 10 warmest winter temperatures.
2015-16: El Niño year with top 10 warmest winter temperatures.
Mid-December: Typical start of winter ice fishing season.
Seasonal Patterns
The current weather forecast follows the atmospheric shifts observed during the 2015-16 El Niño season. This year's event is officially the warmest on record, marking a continuation of warming trends that resulted in the warmest winter ever recorded for Polk County in 2023-34.
Anglers and residents should monitor the Minnesota DNR ice conditions report regularly as the mid-December start to the ice fishing season approaches. Exercising caution is essential, as fluctuating temperatures can impact the structural integrity of ice on local waters.
The takeaway
El Niño patterns significantly alter regional winter expectations and ice formation reliability. Residents should prepare for a potentially shorter window for traditional winter activities compared to historical norms.
Further reading
For more information on regional ice safety, view the Minnesota Current Conditions page.
More information
View the Minnesota DNR ice conditions report for updated safety information.
Source note: This article includes information reported by INFORUM.
Live Poll
Do you plan to change your winter outdoor activity plans due to warmer temperature forecasts?
