Flanagan and Tafoya to Face Tight Senate Race
Minnesota voters will decide the open U.S. Senate seat held by Tina Smith in November's general election.
Updated on Oct. 4, 2026 in Elections
Live Poll
Do you plan to support a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in your state?
Democratic nominee Peggy Flanagan and Republican nominee Michele Tafoya are locked in a close contest for an open Minnesota U.S. Senate seat. Recent polling indicates a narrow margin as the November 2026 election approaches.
Why it matters
The race for this open seat is highly competitive, reflecting an effort by Republicans to secure a Senate victory in Minnesota for the first time since 2002. Both candidates are vying to win over undecided voters in a state that has historically favored Democratic senate candidates.
Recent polling data shows Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya separated by slim margins, with Big Data Poll results placing Flanagan at 45.8% and Tafoya at 43.6%. InsiderAdvantage polls similarly show a tight race with Flanagan at 46% to Tafoya's 45%.
The players
Peggy Flanagan
She is the Democratic nominee for the Minnesota U.S. Senate seat.
Michele Tafoya
She is the Republican nominee for the Minnesota U.S. Senate seat.
Tina Smith
She is the U.S. Senator who vacated the seat currently being contested.
Marisa Simonetti
She is a third-party candidate appearing on the Minnesota Senate ballot.
Rebecca Whiting
She is a third-party candidate appearing on the Minnesota Senate ballot.
The details
The Senate seat was vacated by Senator Tina Smith, setting the stage for a high-stakes campaign between the two major party nominees. Third-party candidates Marisa Simonetti and Rebecca Whiting also appear on the ballot, potentially influencing the final outcome in November.
Timeline
The last Republican to win a Minnesota U.S. Senate election was in 2002.
Five polls were conducted throughout September 2026.
The general election is scheduled for November 2026.
Political Context
The Minnesota Senate race is a test of whether Republicans can finally overcome the electoral patterns established since the 2002 Minnesota U.S. Senate election. The state's recent voting history, including Amy Klobuchar's 56.2% vote share in 2024, underscores the difficulty challengers face in shifting the state's political leanings.
This race will determine who represents Minnesota in the U.S. Senate, directly affecting the state's influence on federal legislative priorities and national policy. Voters will cast their final ballots in November to decide which candidate will fill the vacancy.
The takeaway
The narrow polling margins suggest that voter turnout in November will be a decisive factor in determining the next senator. Minnesota residents should prepare for the election by reviewing candidate platforms and polling place locations before the vote.
Further reading
For more on upcoming races, visit the Elections section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Election Central.
Live Poll
Do you plan to support a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in your state?
