Minnesota Will Experience Warmer Winter Forecast
The National Weather Service anticipates temperatures will trend 5 to 7 degrees above average through December.
Updated on Sept. 21, 2026 in Forecasts
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The National Weather Service projects a warmer-than-average winter for Minnesota. Meteorological analysis suggests temperatures could trend 5 to 7 degrees above normal through December 2026.
Why it matters
Understanding long-term climate patterns helps residents and state officials prepare for potential shifts in seasonal conditions. This forecast provides an early outlook for what Minnesotans might expect as winter approaches.
Minnesota DNR analysis of 27 El Niño winters since 1950 shows they are historically 2.4 degrees warmer on average. Projections suggest this year's winter could see temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above the norm.
The players
National Weather Service
This federal agency is responsible for providing weather forecasts and warnings to the public.
Minnesota DNR
This state department manages natural resources and conducts environmental and climate analyses.
Paul Douglas
He is a meteorologist who has provided expert analysis on regional climate patterns and El Niño effects.
The details
Meteorologist Paul Douglas evaluated historical climate patterns, noting that El Niño winters generally produce 24% less snow. These findings follow recent years where snowfall totals fluctuated from less than 30 inches two years ago to 54 inches last winter.
Timeline
Analysis of El Niño winters has been conducted since 1950.
The 1991 Halloween blizzard occurred during an El Niño winter.
Warm conditions are currently forecast to persist through December 2026.
Seasonal Patterns
Historical records of El Niño winters demonstrate significant variability in Minnesota's climate, with events like the 1991 Halloween blizzard serving as notable benchmarks. This forecast aligns with long-term data showing a tendency for these winters to be milder than non-El Niño years.
Residents should remain aware of shifting weather conditions as winter approaches, even if overall temperatures are expected to be warmer. Keep an eye on local advisories for any potential late-season storms or fluctuations in snowfall totals.
The takeaway
While historical data suggests a trend toward warmer and less snowy winters during El Niño years, localized weather events can still occur unpredictably. Maintaining preparedness remains important regardless of long-term seasonal forecasts.
Further reading
For more information on upcoming regional weather, visit Minnesota Forecasts.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Axios.
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Given changing weather patterns, is now a good time to adjust your household's winter preparations?
