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Michigan

Upper Peninsula to See Warmer, Drier November

Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in the western Upper Peninsula through mid-November 2026.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Current Conditions

Rocky Lake Superior shoreline under a clear late-autumn sky, with bare birch and conifer forest rising behind slate-blue water.
Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across Michigan's western Upper Peninsula through mid-November, ahead of the Nov. 15 firearm deer opener. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Live Poll

Will November 2026 in the western U.P. be warmer and drier than normal?

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in the western Upper Peninsula through the middle of November, with November 2026 overall expected to run warmer and drier than normal. The forecast follows a heavy 2025 lake-effect snow season in the region.

Why it matters

A warmer, drier November could affect conditions ahead of the Nov. 15 firearm deer opener, which follows a 2025 deer harvest that fell about 15% compared to recent years. Forecasts of this kind are expressed as likelihoods rather than exact daily conditions.

The forecast is a federal probability outlook, not a measured observation, showing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the western Upper Peninsula compared with typical local averages. Specific day-by-day conditions and total snowfall or rainfall amounts for November 2026 remain unknown.

The players

National Weather Service Marquette

The local forecast office serving the Upper Peninsula, which issues regional weather guidance for the area.

Climate Prediction Center

A division of the National Weather Service that produces the one-to-two-week and extended outlooks used in this forecast.

The details

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Marquette, working from Climate Prediction Center outlooks, expect the western Upper Peninsula to run warmer and drier than normal through the middle of November. Last year, heavy lake-effect snow fell across the central region, with Keweenaw County recording 22 inches in November 2025, including 16 inches from a single Nov. 26 storm.

Timeline

  1. - November 2025: Heavy lake-effect snow season, with Keweenaw County recording 22 inches.

  2. - Nov. 26, 2025: A single storm dropped 16 inches of snow in Keweenaw County.

  3. - 2025 season: The regional deer harvest fell about 15% compared to recent years.

  4. - Nov. 15, 2026: Michigan firearm deer season opens.

  5. - Middle of November 2026: Forecast period of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

Seasonal Patterns

The forecast follows the Climate Prediction Center's standard extended outlook method, which expresses seasonal likelihoods of warmer or drier conditions rather than specific daily values. It contrasts with the heavy lake-effect snow that defined the November 2025 season in the central Upper Peninsula.

Hunters planning for the Nov. 15 firearm opener should monitor local forecasts closer to the date, since the outlook gives likelihoods rather than exact conditions. Residents in the western Upper Peninsula should expect milder, drier weather than typical through mid-November.

The takeaway

Warmer and drier than usual conditions are forecast for the western Upper Peninsula, but the outlook describes likelihoods, so plans should account for day-to-day variation.

What happens next

The Michigan firearm deer season opens Nov. 15, 2026, the first date on which the forecast period's conditions will be tested.

Further reading

Track the latest Current Conditions for Michigan.

Source note: This article includes information reported by Mininggazette.

Live Poll

Will November 2026 in the western U.P. be warmer and drier than normal?