Prediction Markets Trade $1.1M on Maryland Elections

Kalshi and Polymarket users have traded more than $1.1 million on Maryland election outcomes, drawing a state investigation request.

Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Elections

Prediction Markets Trade $1.1M on Maryland Elections

Live Poll

Should people be allowed to bet on election outcomes through prediction markets?

Users traded more than $1.1 million on Maryland elections on Kalshi and Polymarket's international platform, according to publicly available trading data analyzed by The Baltimore Sun. In July, State Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis asked the Office of the State Prosecutor to investigate whether these prediction-market contracts violate Maryland election law.

Why it matters

The question is whether yes-or-no contracts on candidate outcomes fall under state election rules that restrict wagering on elections. The request puts prediction markets' growing activity around local races under regulatory scrutiny in Maryland.

The $1.1 million figure is based on publicly available trading data analyzed by The Baltimore Sun and covers only Kalshi and Polymarket's international platform. Whether the Office of the State Prosecutor has opened any inquiry remains unconfirmed.

The players

Jared DeMarinis

DeMarinis serves as Maryland's State Elections Administrator, overseeing election administration and enforcement of state election rules.

Office of the State Prosecutor

The Office of the State Prosecutor is the Maryland agency responsible for investigating and prosecuting violations of state election law.

The details

Users buy event contracts priced below $1 that pay $1 per winning contract before fees and nothing on losing contracts, tied to whether a candidate wins. The State Elections Administrator's July request asks prosecutors to determine whether these contracts violate Maryland election law.

July: State Elections Administrator Jared DeMarinis asked the Office of the State Prosecutor to investigate prediction-market contracts.
November 3, 2026: Election Day in Maryland.

Season Trajectory

The state's inquiry arrives as prediction-market volume grows around individual races before Election Day on November 3, 2026. How Maryland's election law applies to these yes-or-no contracts will shape whether similar platforms face comparable scrutiny in other states.

Maryland voters following these races should know that prediction-market odds on candidate outcomes are not regulated like traditional campaign contributions or wagers. Whether these contracts are legal under state election law is currently under review, and no enforcement action has been announced.

The takeaway

Voters tracking Maryland races should treat prediction-market prices as a signal of trader sentiment, not as verified election forecasts. Watch for any action from the Office of the State Prosecutor as Election Day approaches.