Red Sox Predicted to Land Randy Arozarena
ESPN analyst Paul Hembekides forecasts Arozarena signs with Boston, while a Phillies On SI writer predicts Philadelphia will overpay for the free agent.
Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Baseball
ESPN analyst Paul Hembekides predicts free agent Randy Arozarena will sign with the Boston Red Sox, a forecast that assumes Jarren Duran is traded to clear room. Phillies On SI writer Kenneth Teape separately predicts Philadelphia will overpay to sign Arozarena.
Why it matters
Boston needs another bat, especially a right-handed one, after ranking 26th in the majors in home runs in 2026 and being swept by the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Series. The projections bear on how Boston's outfield and lineup could be reshaped this offseason.
Arozarena posted a career-high 148 OPS+ and 113 runs in 154 games with Seattle in 2026. Whether he will sign with Boston or Philadelphia has not been determined, and his qualifying offer decision is due November 17.
The players
Paul Hembekides
An ESPN analyst who predicted Arozarena will sign with the Boston Red Sox.
Kenneth Teape
A Phillies On SI writer who predicted the Philadelphia Phillies will overpay to sign Arozarena.
Randy Arozarena
A 31-year-old outfielder who hit the free-agent market after a career year with the Seattle Mariners.
The details
Hembekides's prediction assumes the Red Sox would trade Jarren Duran to make room for Arozarena, who is 31. Teape's analysis holds that Philadelphia would need to commit $28 million annually, which would cost the Phillies their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2027 draft.
Timeline
2026: Arozarena's career year with Seattle and Boston's 26th-place home run ranking
November 17, 2026: Arozarena's qualifying offer decision is due
Around December 2, 2026: A work stoppage is expected to begin
2027 draft: Phillies would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks if they sign Arozarena
Season Trajectory
Boston ranked 26th in the majors in home runs in 2026 and was swept by the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Series, leaving the lineup short on power. Analysts are projecting how a single free-agent addition could shift that trajectory, with Arozarena's power and speed profile central to the forecasts.
If Boston adds Arozarena, Jarren Duran would likely be traded, changing the Red Sox outfield and the lineup's left-right balance. If Philadelphia signs him at $28 million annually, the Phillies would give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2027 draft.
The takeaway
Arozarena's free-agent market will hinge on whether teams are willing to pay near $28 million annually for a 31-year-old outfielder, and the qualifying offer deadline is the next checkpoint. Readers tracking the Red Sox can watch for moves on Jarren Duran and the right-handed bat the team is seeking.
What happens next
Arozarena's qualifying offer decision is due November 17, 2026, and a work stoppage is expected to begin around December 2, 2026.
Further reading
For more on the Red Sox roster and the offseason, see Boston Baseball coverage.
