Lake-Effect Snow Possible in Chicago Later This Week
Snow may fall Thursday night into Friday morning but is not expected to stick or accumulate in the Chicago area.
Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Forecasts
Winds blowing down Lake Michigan and plunging temperatures over land could produce lake-effect snow in Chicago later this week. The snow is not expected to stick or accumulate, and any snow that falls is expected to be mixed with rain.
Why it matters
Chicago has not yet recorded its first trace of snowfall this season, which typically occurs around Halloween. Above-average fall temperatures are why the snow is not expected to accumulate, even as the event brings the city a chance at its first snow.
The NWS defines first trace of snowfall as the first observed snowflakes at O'Hare International Airport, and the earliest recorded occurred on September 25, 1942. The precipitation band's final track and totals remain uncertain as the event approaches.
The players
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service is the federal agency that issues forecasts and defines official snowfall measurements, including first trace of snowfall, for locations such as O'Hare International Airport.
The details
Lake-effect precipitation is forecast to fall as rain Thursday morning, then could fall as snow Thursday night into Friday morning as temperatures drop. The precipitation band is forecast to shift further west into Illinois, potentially impacting the city of Chicago.
Timeline
Thursday, November 12, 2026: Lake-effect showers expected to develop and fall as rain.
Thursday night into Friday morning, November 12-13, 2026: Precipitation could fall as snow as temperatures drop.
November 18: Average date of Chicago's first measurable snowfall.
Seasonal Patterns
Chicago's first trace of snowfall has historically ranged from September 25, 1942 to December 5, 1999 at O'Hare International Airport, with the typical timing around Halloween. This possible lake-effect event lands against a warm fall that has run above average, placing it later in the season than the earliest recorded first snows.
Residents should expect rain Thursday before a possible change to snow Thursday night into Friday morning, so plan for slick travel if temperatures drop quickly. Because the snow is not expected to accumulate, no significant cleanup is anticipated based on current forecasts.
The takeaway
Warm fall temperatures are why this possible snow is not expected to stick, a useful reminder that seasonal conditions can outweigh a snow forecast's headline. Watch the updated forecast closely, since the precipitation band's track toward Illinois could still change the outcome for the city.
What happens next
Lake-effect showers are expected to develop Thursday morning, November 12, 2026, with possible snow Thursday night into Friday morning.
Further reading
Track the latest outlooks in the Forecasts section for more on what's ahead for Chicago weather.
Source note: This article includes information reported by NBC Chicago.
