Polar Vortex Disruption Could Bring Arctic Air

SIUE weather expert Alan Black says El Niño conditions may coincide with a polar vortex disruption this winter, potentially bringing Arctic air to the Edwardsville area.

Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Severe Weather

Wide winter prairie under a pale sky with bare trees and frost-covered fields, with dense gray clouds moving in from the north. — Forecasters say a possible polar vortex disruption this winter could send Arctic air south toward Illinois as early as late November or December. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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SIUE weather expert Alan Black says El Niño conditions may coincide with a polar vortex disruption this winter. Arctic air could reach the Edwardsville area in late November or early-to-mid December.

Why it matters

A polar vortex disruption can allow cold air to move south out of the Arctic, affecting weather far from the North Pole. The possible arrival of Arctic air during the holiday travel period could make conditions harder for residents across Illinois.

Meteorologist Alan Black's assessment rests on El Niño conditions in place since early June 2026, compared with the earliest major polar vortex disruption on record, which occurred on Nov. 28, 1968. It is not yet known whether a disruption will occur this winter, and the timing and strength of any resulting Arctic air outbreak remain uncertain.

The players

Alan Black

Alan Black is a weather expert at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville who provided the assessment of possible polar vortex effects on the region.

The details

The polar vortex is a band of strong winds high above the North Pole that surrounds a pool of cold air. When the vortex weakens or shifts, it can affect the jet stream and allow Arctic air to move south, a process that is most common in December, January and February.

Nov. 28, 1968: Earliest major polar vortex disruption on record.
Early June 2026: El Niño conditions began and remain in place.
Late November or early-to-mid December: Arctic air could reach the Edwardsville area.
December, January and February: Most common months for polar vortex disruptions affecting weather farther south.

Seasonal Patterns

The current outlook is measured against the earliest major polar vortex disruption on record, which occurred on Nov. 28, 1968. Disruptions affecting weather farther south are most common in December, January and February, so a late-November or early-December event would fall outside the usual peak window.

Residents should monitor forecasts as the holiday travel period approaches, since Arctic air and moisture could make driving hazardous. Keeping cold-weather travel supplies on hand is a practical step while the possibility of a disruption remains unresolved.

The takeaway

A winter polar vortex disruption is a recognized pattern, but its timing and strength remain uncertain until the effects develop over the coming weeks. Keeping an eye on forecasts through the late-November and holiday period offers the clearest way to prepare.