Iowa Senate Polls Show Competitive Race

Recent polling data indicates a narrow margin between candidates Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson.

Updated on Sept. 28, 2026 in Elections

Bold flat-color editorial illustration of the Iowa State Capitol dome silhouette, evoking the gravity of a competitive state election race. — Recent polling data for the Iowa Senate race shows a narrow margin between incumbent Ashley Hinson and challenger Josh Turek. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Recent surveys for the Iowa Senate race show a tight contest between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson. Both candidates are polling within a narrow range as the November election approaches.

Why it matters

The competitiveness of the race underscores the high stakes for control of the Senate. Voters in Iowa are evaluating candidates amid shifting political trends in the state.

Independent surveys including InsiderAdvantage and the Big Data Poll place Josh Turek at 46.5-47% and Ashley Hinson at 42-46%. The RealClearPolling average shows a margin of just 0.5% between the two candidates.

The players

Josh Turek

He is a candidate currently running for the U.S. Senate in Iowa.

Ashley Hinson

She is a candidate currently running for the U.S. Senate in Iowa.

Donald Trump

He is the current President of the United States who won Iowa by 13 points in the 2024 election.

The details

RealClearPolling reports an aggregate average of 45% for Josh Turek and 44.5% for Ashley Hinson. This comes as analysts recall the 2024 election, when state polling incorrectly missed the actual results by 16 points.

September 22-23, 2026: InsiderAdvantage surveyed 1,200 likely voters.
September 23-26, 2026: Big Data Poll conducted its survey of likely voters.
November 2026: The Senate election takes place.

Political Context

Current polling margins face skepticism due to the 2024 Iowa state polling 16-point error that failed to capture the electorate accurately. This history of inaccuracies creates a significant hurdle for pollsters trying to gauge the actual level of support for Senate candidates.

The competitive polling suggests that residents across Iowa may experience intensified campaign activity as candidates vie for undecided voters. This environment impacts public discourse and voter turnout efforts leading up to the November election.

The takeaway

Voters should keep in mind that polling figures are snapshots and not final results, especially given the history of significant polling errors in Iowa. Assessing candidate platforms independently remains the most reliable way to prepare for the upcoming November election.