Strong Trade Winds, Warning Surf Forecast for Hawaiʻi

Winds strengthen Wednesday and Thursday as a large northwest swell arrives Wednesday night on north and west shores.

Updated on Nov. 11, 2026 in Forecasts

Large ocean swells break against a dark volcanic headland on a Hawaiian shoreline, with wind-torn spray rising off the wave crests. — Strong trade winds and a large northwest swell are forecast to bring warning-level surf to Hawaiʻi's north and west shores by Wednesday night. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Moderate to breezy trade winds continue across Hawaiʻi today, with showers mainly over windward areas and higher elevations. Winds are expected to strengthen tonight and become locally strong Wednesday and Thursday, with the strongest winds over Maui and the Big Island.

Why it matters

Strong winds and a large northwest swell could create hazardous conditions along exposed coastlines and on the water across the state. Warning-level surf could reach north and west shores by Wednesday night, affecting beachgoers, boaters, and surfers.

The forecast is based on projected trade wind strengthening and a larger northwest swell described qualitatively without specific wind or wave measurements. Exact speeds, heights, and rainfall totals remain unspecified in the current forecast.

The details

Trade winds strengthen tonight and become locally strong Wednesday and Thursday, with the strongest winds expected over Maui and the Big Island. A much larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday, bringing warning-level surf that could begin by Wednesday night before gradually decreasing later in the week. A band of moisture moving across the islands will bring more showers later this week, mainly affecting windward areas and higher elevations.

Today (2026-11-10): Moderate to breezy trade winds continue across the islands.
Tonight (2026-11-10): Trade winds are expected to strengthen.
Wednesday (2026-11-11): Locally strong winds and the large northwest swell arrival are expected, with warning-level surf possible by night.
Thursday (2026-11-12): Locally strong winds are expected to continue.
Later this week: More showers are expected as a moisture band moves across the islands.

Seasonal Patterns

The forecast fits the typical pattern of strengthening northeast trade winds and north-to-west swells that affect the Hawaiian Islands during the late fall season. It can be compared against the National Weather Service's Hawaiian Islands high surf warning criteria to gauge how the expected surf measures against established thresholds.

Boaters, surfers, and beachgoers on north and west shores should monitor surf advisories as warning-level surf could arrive by Wednesday night. Residents on Maui and the Big Island should secure loose outdoor items ahead of the locally strong winds expected Wednesday and Thursday.

The takeaway

Plan ocean and outdoor activities around the Wednesday through Thursday window, when the strongest winds and largest surf are expected. Check updated forecasts before heading to exposed shorelines or the water.