UHERO Forecast Predicted Hawaii Job Losses

The economic report for the third quarter of 2026 anticipates stagnation due to high energy costs and lower tourism.

Updated on Oct. 9, 2026 in Employment

UHERO Forecast Predicted Hawaii Job Losses

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UHERO released its Q3 2026 economic forecast, projecting a year of job losses and overall economic stagnation for Hawaii. The analysis points to weak income growth and a modest tourism recovery as primary challenges.

Why it matters

High energy costs and affordability issues are significantly hindering Hawaii's economic growth. These factors are compounded by visitors from the U.S. shortening their trip durations.

U.S. visitors account for 80% of total visitor spending in the state. The forecast covers the economic outlook for Q3 2026.

The players

UHERO

The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii provides analysis and forecasts for the state economy.

The details

Rising fuel costs and recent storms have impacted the local economy, leading to a projected period of limited job growth. While tourism is expected to see a modest recovery, the reduction in vacation duration is curbing potential gains.

Q3 2026: UHERO released its latest economic forecast.
2026: The state is expected to experience job losses.
2027: Economic recovery is projected to begin.

Macro View

This forecast reflects historical economic cycles in Hawaii where external shocks often drive periods of stagnation. It follows the pattern established by the UHERO Hawaii economic forecasting model in signaling a shift toward slower regional growth.

Hawaii residents may face job insecurity as local businesses navigate projected stagnation and limited growth. Households should prepare for potential income weakness until the expected recovery begins in 2027.

The takeaway

Economic stabilization for the state remains tied to U.S. visitor trends and energy affordability. Residents are encouraged to monitor future quarterly updates for signs of shifting labor market conditions.