Study Finds Expanded Hurricane Cone Confuses Public

Florida State University researchers found an updated forecast graphic did not improve public understanding of storm danger or prompt more protective action.

Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Forecasts

Study Finds Expanded Hurricane Cone Confuses Public

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Would you take protective action if your inland area were under a hurricane watch?

A study published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society found that an experimental hurricane forecast graphic, which expands the traditional cone to show inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, helped participants identify inland areas under watches but did not improve identification of areas under warnings. The revised graphic also did not significantly change perceived danger or intent to take protective measures.

Why it matters

The traditional cone has emphasized coastal regions, although dangerous storm conditions can extend far inland. The findings suggest that changing the graphic alone may not be enough to communicate storm threats to residents.

The study surveyed residents of Florida and Georgia comparing the conventional cone with an experimental graphic that adds inland watches and warnings. Survey results showed improved identification of inland watch areas but no gain in identifying warning areas, and the sample sizes and effect magnitudes were not reported in the source extraction.

The players

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center is the federal agency under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that issues tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins.

Florida State University

Florida State University is a public research university in Tallahassee, Florida, whose researchers conducted the study and whose internal SEED grant funded it.

The details

Researchers found that many people interpret the width of the hurricane cone as an indication of a storm's physical size, a widespread misunderstanding the study says persists. The National Hurricane Center developed the updated graphic format in 2024 and supplied the experimental graphics evaluated, while the study was funded through an internal Florida State University SEED grant.

• 2024: The National Hurricane Center develops the updated hurricane forecast graphic format.
• November 3, 2026: The study findings are published in Weather, Climate, and Society.

Seasonal Patterns

The study evaluates the National Hurricane Center's 2024 expanded cone graphic, which was designed to address inland storm threats that the traditional cone has historically underplayed. Its mixed results suggest that forecast graphics alone may not shift public response during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Residents should check whether their home lies under a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning, not just inside the traditional cone, when a storm approaches. The researchers recommend pairing forecast graphics with local weather predictions and detailed information about possible impacts.

The takeaway

A wider forecast graphic does not by itself change how people understand storm danger, so reading local watches, warnings, and impact details matters more than the shape of the cone. Check official forecasts for your specific address before a storm arrives.