Kalshi Market Puts Davis Trade Odds at 48%
Prediction-market pricing shows Washington forward Anthony Davis with a 48% chance of being traded this season.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Basketball
Kalshi's NBA trade market gives Anthony Davis a 48% chance of being traded this season, a market that has been open since June and has mostly priced above 40%. The Washington Wizards, who are 3-3 and first in the Southeast Division, are the team at the center of the market.
Why it matters
The figure reflects how traders are weighing Davis's availability against Washington's early-season standing and the young talent around him. It gives fans a measurable read on the trade outlook before the market settles.
Kalshi prices Davis's trade odds at 48% this season, a figure that has mostly stayed above 40% since the market opened in June. Whether a trade happens by February 12 remains unknown, and the price is a market estimate, not a confirmed move.
The players
Anthony Davis
Veteran Washington forward whose trade price is the subject of the Kalshi market, averaging 22.3 points and 9.2 rebounds this season.
AJ Dybantsa
Young Washington big man who has started two games this season, averaging 18 points and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 56.5%.
The details
Kalshi lets users bet on whether Washington trades Davis by February 12, a day after the trade deadline. A $10 bet at the current price would return a profit of $10.08 if the trade occurs. Davis is healthy, and the Wizards' 3-3 start has them in first place in the Southeast Division.
Timeline
June: Kalshi opens its market on a Davis trade.
Early season: The Wizards start 3-3 and take first place in the Southeast Division.
February 12: Kalshi settles the market on whether Washington trades Davis.
Season Trajectory
Kalshi's trade markets let bettors price player movement the way they price game outcomes, and Davis's 48% figure shows how the market reads a team in first place early. How the Wizards perform as Dybantsa develops will shape whether that price holds or climbs past 50%.
Fantasy managers tracking Davis can weigh his 22.3-point and 9.2-rebound averages against the risk of a mid-season move. A trade would reshape Washington's frontcourt rotation around Dybantsa and the other young players.
The takeaway
Prediction-market prices offer a quick read on trade likelihood, but a 48% figure is an estimate that moves with team results. Watching how Washington's start holds up will show whether the market's view of Davis changes.
What happens next
The Kalshi market settles on whether Washington trades Davis by February 12, one day after the trade deadline.
Further reading
For more on the league, see Basketball coverage on Wizards Basketball and the wider NBA trade picture.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Sports Illustrated.
