International SFO Passenger Volume Remained Flat
Air travel to San Francisco from China stayed at half of 2019 levels in the first half of 2026.
Updated on Sept. 27, 2026 in Air Travel
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International passenger volume at San Francisco International Airport struggled to recover to 2019 levels during the first half of 2026. Travel between the U.S. and mainland China remained stagnant as flight caps continue to limit capacity.
Why it matters
Ongoing political tensions between the U.S. and China have resulted in a persistent cap of 50 direct flights per week between the nations. This restriction has significantly hindered the return of pre-pandemic visitor levels to the San Francisco area.
Passenger arrivals from Beijing to SFO declined 7% in the first half of 2026. Conversely, travel from Manila increased 48%, Hong Kong rose 13%, and Singapore grew 20% year-over-year.
The players
San Francisco International Airport
This facility serves as the primary gateway for international air traffic in the San Francisco Bay Area.
United Airlines
This major carrier operates significant international routes through its SFO hub, including service to the Philippines.
Tourism Economics
This organization provides industry forecasts and data analysis regarding international travel and tourism trends.
The details
While travel from mainland China remains suppressed, SFO has seen growth from other Asian hubs such as Manila, partially bolstered by United Airlines adding a second daily flight to the route last fall. Despite these gains, overall international visitor numbers for San Francisco and San Mateo counties sit at half of their 2019 baseline.
Timeline
In 2019, international passenger and visitor counts reached their pre-pandemic baseline.
The U.S.-China flight cap of 50 flights per week was implemented in 2024.
United Airlines added a flight between Manila and San Francisco in fall 2025.
Data for the first half of 2026 confirms the current state of passenger volume.
Tourism Economics forecasts 2.42 million international visitors for 2027.
Travel Outlook
Current aviation trends at SFO follow the constraints set by the U.S.-China 50-flight-per-week cap, which continues to limit international connectivity. This restriction marks a departure from historical growth patterns that defined the regional tourism market prior to 2019.
Travelers looking to book flights to mainland China should expect limited availability due to the ongoing 50-flight-per-week capacity cap. Conversely, increased service to hubs like Manila may offer more flexible booking options for those connecting through Southeast Asia.
The takeaway
The recovery of San Francisco's international tourism sector is currently tethered to the evolving political and aviation agreements between the U.S. and China. Travelers should monitor potential policy changes as experts project a stronger uptick in total international visitors by 2027.
Further reading
For more information on the current landscape of regional flights, visit the Air Travel section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by San Francisco Chronicle.
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