UC Davis Flags Six California Areas for Flood Risk

A UC Davis report identifies six California coastal areas at risk for severe flooding during winter 2026-2027.

Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Forecasts

Large Pacific waves break over a low sea wall and spill across a wide sandy beach under a heavy gray storm sky. — A UC Davis report flags six California coastal areas, including Avila Beach and Pismo Beach, as at risk of severe flooding this winter. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Do you think your coastal community is prepared for severe flooding this winter?

A UC Davis report identifies six areas of California at risk for severe coastal flooding during winter 2026-2027, including Avila Beach and Pismo Beach in San Luis Obispo County. Flooding risk is tied to a combination of a Kelvin Wave, King Tides, and El Nino conditions.

Why it matters

The projected flooding could cause coastal damage, beach loss, and infrastructure problems for communities along the California coast. Outcomes depend on storm timing, location, high tides, and stormwater runoff.

The UC Davis report identifies six California areas at risk for severe coastal flooding in winter 2026-2027. The severity of flooding remains unknown and depends on storm timing, high tides, and stormwater runoff.

The players

UC Davis

The University of California, Davis is a public research university whose researchers produced the report identifying the at-risk coastal areas.

The details

Flooding risk is driven by a combination of a Kelvin Wave, King Tides, and El Nino conditions, with flooding near SLO Creek resulting from stormwater runoff combined with high tide. Projected impacts include coastal flooding, loss of beaches and shoreline houses, infrastructure damage from erosion, and alteration of bluffs, marshes and mudflats.

Winter 2026-2027: period of projected severe coastal flooding risk across the identified California areas.

Seasonal Patterns

The forecast ties a specific Kelvin Wave and El Nino combination to predicted winter flooding along California's coast. It positions the 2026-2027 winter as a period of elevated coastal flood risk relative to the seasonal high-tide cycle.

Coastal residents in the identified areas, including Avila Beach and Pismo Beach, should monitor forecasts as winter 2026-2027 approaches. Stormwater runoff combined with high tide is a stated flooding risk near SLO Creek.

The takeaway

Coastal flooding risk in these areas depends heavily on storm timing and high tides, so monitoring local forecasts this winter is a practical step. The outcome could range from temporary inconvenience to significant erosion and damage.