Historic El Niño Has Emerged in Pacific Ocean
A powerful weather pattern could drive significant rainfall and flooding risks across Southern Arizona.
Updated on Oct. 5, 2026 in Forecasts
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A developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is currently forecasted to be the strongest ever recorded, with temperatures projected to rise significantly. This shift in global weather patterns has experts concerned about the potential for increased precipitation in the Tucson area.
Why it matters
Warmer Pacific Ocean waters shift global weather patterns and diffuse excess heat into the atmosphere, creating conditions that often lead to increased temperatures and erratic rainfall. These fluctuations present a direct risk to infrastructure and properties in flood-prone regions like Tucson.
Projections indicate ocean temperatures could reach 3.4 degrees Celsius above normal by 2026, surpassing the 2.2-degree anomaly recorded in 1983. Tucson previously saw $100 million in damages from the 1983 flood and $17 million in 1993.
The players
Pima County Flood Control District
This regional agency oversees floodplain management and flood mitigation infrastructure for the Tucson area.
FEMA
The federal agency is responsible for coordinating the government response to natural disasters and managing national flood insurance standards.
The details
The Pima County Flood Control District has implemented mitigation strategies, including strengthening banks and purchasing vulnerable properties to manage flood risks. Officials utilize a ground-based sensor system to provide alerts when rainfall totals threaten the safety of local residents.
Timeline
Major flooding occurred in Tucson in 1983.
Historic floods impacted the city in 1993.
A strong El Niño produced lower-than-average precipitation in 2016.
A strong El Niño is currently developing in 2026.
Seasonal Patterns
This developing El Niño follows a pattern set by the 1983 El Niño flooding, which serves as a major historical benchmark for flood risk in the region. Current models suggest this event could be even more intense than previous record-breaking shifts.
Residents in unincorporated Pima County should determine their eligibility for a discount of up to 40% on flood insurance premiums through the local program. Homeowners should also familiarize themselves with regional flood alerts and ensure their property is prepared for potential rainfall.
The takeaway
Proactive property management and the utilization of flood insurance are critical tools for residents facing heightened climate instability. Monitoring official flood control alerts remains the most effective way to ensure safety during periods of predicted extreme precipitation.
Further reading
For more information on local weather trends, visit Tucson Forecasts.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Arizona Public Media.
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