Arkansas Prisons Could Add 5,000 Inmates by 2036
A Council of State Governments Justice Center projection warns that revocations and slower case resolution could drive costly prison growth.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Criminal Justice
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Marshall Clement, director of the Council of State Governments Justice Center, told Arkansas lawmakers on November 10, 2026, that the state could see 5,000 more people in prison over the next decade. He estimated accommodating that growth could cost about $2 billion in construction and operating expenses.
Why it matters
The projection frames prison growth as a fiscal question for Arkansas, tying it to how often people on probation or parole are sent back and how many violent crimes go unsolved. Lawmakers weighing new spending or policy changes would need to account for both the construction and daily operating costs.
The analysis covers prison admissions and length of stay from 2014 to 2023, with 2025 data showing 54% of reported violent crimes in Arkansas were not cleared. Its 5,000-person projection assumes current trends hold, and the extent to which alternatives to revocation would offset that growth remains unquantified.
The players
Council of State Governments Justice Center
A nonprofit policy research organization that works with state governments on criminal justice reform and corrections data.
Marshall Clement
Director of the Council of State Governments Justice Center, who presented the Arkansas prison projections to state lawmakers.
The details
Clement said revocations drive a large share of admissions, with 48% of felony revocation convictions for drug offenses and 21% for property offenses. Building each prison bed is estimated at $275,000, and housing each person costs $70 per day. He also noted people serving new court commitments stayed 32% longer than a decade earlier.
Timeline
2014 to 2023: Period covered by the admission and length-of-stay analysis.
2025: Year in which 54% of reported violent crimes in Arkansas were not cleared.
November 10, 2026: Clement presented the prison growth projections to lawmakers.
Next decade: Period over which 5,000 additional people could enter prison.
Legal Context
Missouri, which expanded alternatives to revocation, serves as the model Clement points to when suggesting community correction centers could relieve prison pressure. Arkansas's revocation share of more than 70% of admissions, compared with a 32% national average, places its prison growth in sharper contrast to that approach.
For Arkansas taxpayers, the projection points to roughly $2 billion in construction and operating costs that lawmakers would need to fund. Residents in Little Rock and Rogers may also feel the effects of clearance rates of 32% and 81% respectively for violent crimes.
The takeaway
Prison population growth in Arkansas depends less on new crime than on how supervision violations and case resolution are handled. Policy choices about revocation and community correction could shift both costs and outcomes.
Further reading
For broader context on how sentencing and supervision rules shape prison populations, see Criminal Justice coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by KATV.
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