Arkansas Drought Deepens as Winter Forecast Turns Wet
Forecasters expect above-normal winter precipitation for Arkansas even as the state's drought intensifies to levels not seen since 2012.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Current Conditions
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The National Weather Service forecasts above-normal winter precipitation for Arkansas, while the Climate Prediction Center expects drought conditions to improve through January. Arkansas drought intensity in 2026 is the most severe since 2012, and growers across much of the state are facing extremely dry conditions.
Why it matters
Dry soil is complicating wheat planting and threatening cool-season forage for ranchers, even as a strong El Niño pattern points toward wetter winter months. The gap between current dryness and the forecast relief is central to how farmers and ranchers manage the coming season.
Forecasts call for above-normal winter precipitation, especially in southwest Arkansas, but southeast Arkansas would need about 18 inches of rainfall to ease drought. Whether the expected rain arrives in time to relieve current dryness remains unresolved.
The players
National Weather Service
The federal agency that issues short- and medium-range weather forecasts and warnings for the United States, including the winter precipitation outlook for Arkansas.
Climate Prediction Center
A division of the National Weather Service that issues seasonal and monthly outlooks, including the forecast for drought improvement in Arkansas through January.
The details
Growers are dusting in wheat and planting into dry soil in hopes rainfall arrives soon, while some are delaying planting until rain falls. The lack of rain is a concern for ranchers who depend on cool-season forage, and this year's drought helped speed harvest for corn, rice, soybeans and cotton.
Timeline
Wheat yields in Arkansas are generally greatest when planted from October through mid-November.
Above-normal temperatures and precipitation are favored for Arkansas from December through February.
The Climate Prediction Center forecasts drought improvement through the end of January.
Seasonal Patterns
Arkansas drought intensity in 2026 is the most severe since 2012, placing the current dry spell alongside that year's historic deficit. The forecast for a strong El Niño-driven wet winter offers a contrast to the 2012 pattern, which was not followed by similar winter relief.
Growers planting winter wheat should weigh the optimal October to mid-November window against current soil moisture before committing seed. Ranchers relying on cool-season forage should plan for limited pasture growth until rainfall materializes across the state.
The takeaway
Drought relief depends on whether forecast winter rainfall arrives in the regions that need it most, particularly southeast Arkansas. Growers and ranchers should watch soil moisture closely before making planting and forage decisions.
What happens next
The Climate Prediction Center's drought outlook extends through the end of January, when forecasters expect drought conditions in Arkansas to begin improving.
Further reading
Track the latest readings on the Current Conditions page for Arkansas.
More information
Find Cooperative Extension programs information through the UADA Cooperative Extension site.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Stuttgart Daily Leader.
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