Treasury Yields Jump as Oil Prices Rise
Market moves follow comments on Iran and rising odds of a December Fed rate hike.
Updated on Nov. 13, 2026 in Economic Indicators
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US Treasury yields rose sharply after oil prices moved up following President Trump's comments that a deal with Iran was not needed. The CME FedWatch tool shows 100% odds of a 50 basis point rate hike in December.
Why it matters
Rising yields and expectations of a larger rate hike raise borrowing costs across the economy, while signs of continued Middle East tension keep energy prices and inflation pressures in focus for investors.
The CME FedWatch tool's 100% implied odds of a 50bps December hike reflect market pricing rather than an official Fed decision. The source does not indicate whether the Fed has signaled such a move, and the duration of Middle East tensions remains unclear.
The players
Donald Trump
The 47th President of the United States, whose comments that a deal with Iran was not needed moved oil prices and market sentiment.
CME FedWatch
A tool operated by CME Group that calculates market-implied probabilities of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions based on futures pricing.
The details
The US dollar index rose above 103 and the Euro traded below 1.11 while the Dollar-Yen tested 160. Gold plunged below 3,900, silver fell to key support at 50, and copper dropped sharply as the Dow traded near 52,000.
Timeline
November 13, 2026: Morning briefing published on Treasury yields and oil moves.
December 2026: Possible 50bps Fed rate hike according to CME FedWatch odds.
Macro View
The move toward a larger December hike is measured against the CME FedWatch tool's probability readings, which track how futures markets price Federal Reserve policy changes. The current reading shows market expectations shifting sharply in response to energy-driven inflation concerns linked to the Iran situation.
Higher Treasury yields generally push up mortgage rates, auto loans and credit card borrowing costs for households. A 50bps Fed hike in December would tighten these costs further, affecting monthly budgets for anyone planning to borrow.
The takeaway
Watch Treasury yields and oil prices together, since energy-driven inflation fears are shaping expectations for Fed policy. Households with variable-rate debt should review their budgets before any rate changes take effect.
Further reading
For broader context on how markets gauge central bank moves, explore Economic Indicators coverage.
Source note: This article includes information reported by FXStreet.
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