EIA Raises Natural Gas Storage Forecast Through Winter
The agency's November outlook also trims winter gas prices while raising its fuel price forecasts for 2027.
Updated on Nov. 10, 2026 in Oil and Gas
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts end-November natural gas storage almost 70 billion cubic feet higher than its October projection, as a warm start to November eases pressure on prices. Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% below last month's forecast.
Why it matters
Lower projected gas prices and higher storage levels reduce pressure on winter energy costs for the country. The agency also raised its gasoline and diesel forecasts because global refined fuel supplies are expected to remain tight through 2027.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude at $104 per barrel in November and $86 per barrel on average in 2027, with diesel at $5.03 per gallon and gasoline at $3.73 per gallon in 2027, up from $4.49 and $3.56 previously. Forecast 2027 U.S. crude production of 14.3 million barrels per day and LNG gross exports of 19 billion cubic feet per day are both projected records.
The players
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
The federal statistical agency within the Department of Energy that publishes the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which issues monthly forecasts on U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices.
The details
The forecast appears in EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects more natural gas in storage throughout the winter. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell to their lowest October level since 2014 as crude exports rose and imports fell.
Timeline
October 2026: U.S. commercial crude inventories reach their lowest October level since 2014.
November 2026: Brent crude forecast to average $104 per barrel and the storage forecast takes effect.
November through March: Henry Hub gas price forecast to average $2.87 per MMBtu.
2027: Brent, fuel price, LNG export, and crude production forecasts take effect.
Market Dynamics
The November outlook continues the EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook revisions, which this month lower natural gas price expectations while raising gasoline and diesel forecasts. The agency expects global refined fuel supplies to stay tight through 2027, reflecting the growing Middle East oil flows that shape Brent pricing.
Lower projected Henry Hub gas prices may ease winter heating and electricity costs for households. Higher forecast gasoline and diesel prices for 2027 could raise fuel costs for drivers and freight shipping.
The takeaway
Lower winter gas price forecasts offer some relief, but the agency's higher fuel price outlook for 2027 suggests drivers and businesses should plan for continued elevated costs. Monitoring EIA's monthly updates can help track how those projections shift.
Further reading
For more on the production and pricing trends behind these forecasts, see Oil and Gas coverage.
More information
Read the full November Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Eia.
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