Forecasts Warn of Slower US Stock Returns

Vanguard and Fidelity project lower annual gains for US equities over the next decade and 20 years, well below recent performance.

Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Investing

Forecasts Warn of Slower US Stock Returns

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Vanguard and Fidelity forecast lower US stock returns over the next decade and 20 years, with Vanguard projecting 4.8% to 6.8% annualized and Fidelity projecting 5.8%. The outlook follows a past 10-year S&P 500 annualized return of roughly 15.2%, including reinvested dividends.

Why it matters

The forecasts suggest American investors approaching retirement may not be able to replicate recent market gains, and investor Michael Burry has warned of possible 15 to 20 years of negligible or negative inflation-adjusted stock returns. Lower projected returns could require households to save more, spend less, or adjust retirement expectations.

Vanguard projects annualized US equity returns of 4.8% to 6.8% over the next decade, and Fidelity projects 5.8% over 20 years, or about 3.2% after inflation. These are forward-looking estimates, and the actual path of returns remains unknown.

The players

Vanguard

Vanguard is a major American investment management firm known for index funds and low-cost investing products.

Fidelity Investments

Fidelity Investments is a large American financial services company offering brokerage, retirement, and asset management services.

Michael Burry

Michael Burry is an investor best known for predicting the 2008 housing market collapse and for his contrarian market bets.

The details

The projections are based on Vanguard's forecasts and Fidelity's 20-year capital market assumptions covering 2025 to 2044. A hypothetical couple with $2 million in retirement and brokerage accounts, receiving $48,000 in annual Social Security and spending about $110,000 a year, would have roughly $3.99 million by age 76 at a 10% return but about $2.57 million at 5.8%, assuming withdrawals rise 2.5% annually for inflation.

The S&P 500 posted roughly 15.2% annualized returns over the past 10 years.
Fidelity's projections cover the 20-year period from 2025 to 2044.
The S&P 500's real price fell about 53% between 1966 and 1982.
The S&P 500's real price declined roughly 58% between 1929 and 1949.

Market Dynamics

The forecasts echo past stretches when the S&P 500's real price fell sharply, including a roughly 53% decline between 1966 and 1982 and a roughly 58% decline between 1929 and 1949. Those periods show that strong recent gains do not guarantee similar results over the following decades.

Investors planning for retirement may need to account for lower projected stock returns when estimating portfolio growth and withdrawal rates. Savings targets, asset allocation, and spending assumptions could all be affected if returns track below the recent decade's pace.

The takeaway

Recent strong stock returns should not be assumed to continue, so planning with a range of return scenarios can help investors prepare for slower markets. Reviewing retirement savings and withdrawal assumptions periodically may reduce the risk of falling short.