Kalshi Block Trades Bet Big on Cincinnati

Two large trades on the prediction market totaled $185,000 on Cincinnati qualifying for the expanded NCAA tournament.

Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Basketball

Kalshi Block Trades Bet Big on Cincinnati

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Two Kalshi block trades bought 250,000 YES contracts on Cincinnati qualifying for the 2027 NCAA tournament, completed 19 minutes apart on November 4. The trades, each worth $92,500 at 74 cents per contract, accounted for roughly 95% of trading volume in the 126-team market.

Why it matters

Before the trades, only 39 Cincinnati contracts had changed hands over six weeks, making the block purchases a sharp break from prior activity. The trades executed below the 82-cent regular market price, drawing attention to who is backing the outcome and why.

The two trades were worth $92,500 each and carry a $250,000 payout if Cincinnati qualifies, lifting open interest to 250,065 contracts. Who placed the orders and why has not been disclosed by the platform.

The players

Kalshi

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events, including sports.

Cincinnati Bearcats

The University of Cincinnati men's basketball program is the subject team whose qualification for the expanded NCAA tournament is the basis of the market.

Jerrod Calhoun

Jerrod Calhoun is the head men's basketball coach at Cincinnati, and his reported $100,000 bonus for reaching the NCAA tournament has drawn attention to the team's postseason prospects.

The details

Block transactions are negotiated outside the exchange and then reported to Kalshi, and are available only to financial institutions, investment funds, regulated insurers, and entities with assets over $10 million. BETINT, which has tracked nine sports block trades since July 27, flagged the Cincinnati purchases as part of that pattern.

- September 22: The Round of 76 Qualifiers market opened on Kalshi.
- July 27: BETINT began tracking nine sports block trades.
- November 4: The two Cincinnati block trades were executed 19 minutes apart, at 2:44 pm and 3:03 pm ET.
- Thursday, November 5: Kalshi pricing implied an 82% chance of Cincinnati qualifying.

Season Trajectory

The trades extend a pattern BETINT has tracked across nine sports block purchases since July 27, shifting attention to how large positions can move a prediction market for a single college program. For Cincinnati, the market now prices qualification for the expanded 2027 tournament as a high-probability outcome at 82%.

The Cincinnati market's price has moved sharply on a small number of trades, so readers following the 126-team Round of 76 Qualifiers can expect shifting odds as more positions are reported. The 250,000-contract position is large enough to affect the market's quoted probability for Cincinnati's qualification.

The takeaway

Large, lightly traded prediction markets can be moved substantially by a handful of block trades, so a single quoted probability may reflect a few concentrated positions rather than broad market consensus.