EIA Sees Diesel Averaging $4.49 in 2027
The federal forecast projects national diesel prices will ease from current levels but remain above $4 per gallon through 2027.
Updated on Nov. 9, 2026 in Inflation
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Do you expect diesel prices to fall below $4 per gallon during 2027?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected national retail diesel would average $4.49 per gallon in 2027, while the national on-highway average stood at $6.29 per gallon on Nov. 2. The agency's forecast was 9 cents higher than its September estimate.
Why it matters
Low distillate fuel stocks are keeping wholesale diesel prices elevated relative to crude oil, and the EIA expects stocks to remain below their 2021-2025 average through 2027. Wood Mackenzie estimates roughly 20% of global refining capacity faces growing closure risk, which could tighten supply further.
The EIA's 2027 forecast is drawn from its October 2026 outlook, which used data through Oct. 1. The national on-highway average was $6.29 per gallon, with the Gulf Coast at $5.91 and California at $8.08, though the source does not say how long the regional gap will persist.
The players
U.S. Energy Information Administration
The federal statistical agency within the Department of Energy that publishes the Short-Term Energy Outlook and tracks national fuel prices and inventories.
Wood Mackenzie
An Edinburgh-based energy research and consultancy firm that tracks global refining capacity and demand forecasts.
FTR
A freight market research firm that publishes Class 8 truck order reports and tracks trucking industry cost pressures.
The details
The EIA expects diesel prices to gradually ease as crude oil prices fall and fuel stocks recover, but it projects retail diesel will average above $4 per gallon in every quarter of 2027. East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September 2026, and the agency projects regional stocks will stay 20-30% below average during the 2026-27 winter.
Timeline
Sept. 2026: East Coast distillate stocks measured 32% below seasonal average.
Oct. 1, 2026: Data cutoff for the EIA forecast.
Oct. 6, 2026: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook released.
Nov. 2, 2026: National on-highway diesel averaged $6.29 per gallon.
2026-27 winter: East Coast regional stocks projected 20-30% below average.
Macro View
The EIA's October 2026 outlook raised its 2027 diesel projection by 9 cents from September, continuing a pattern of forecast revisions driven by low distillate inventories. The agency's projection that stocks stay below their 2021-2025 average through 2027 places the current tightness in a multi-year frame rather than a short-term spike.
At $6.29 per gallon nationally and $8.08 in California, diesel costs add directly to freight rates and grocery prices. A 50-cent change per gallon on a 100,000-mile-per-year tractor shifts annual fuel spending by about $7,100.
The takeaway
Diesel prices are likely to stay elevated through 2027 unless distillate stocks rebuild, so businesses and households that depend on freight should plan budgets around prices above $4 per gallon. Tracking the EIA's monthly outlook offers the clearest view of how the forecast is shifting.
Further reading
For broader price pressures shaping household budgets, see Inflation coverage across U.S. markets.
Live Poll
Do you expect diesel prices to fall below $4 per gallon during 2027?
