Rifle Share of Murders Fell as AR-15s Spread
A Crime Prevention Research Center analysis compares rifle homicide shares before, during and after the federal assault weapons ban.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Violence
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A Crime Prevention Research Center analysis published Nov. 4, 2026, finds the share of firearm murders committed with rifles declined from 1991 through 2025. The estimated number of AR-15 and AK-47 rifles rose sharply over the same period.
Why it matters
The findings bear on the debate over whether restrictions on assault-style rifles reduce firearm homicides across the United States. The analysis reports that rifle murder shares did not rise after the ban expired, even as rifle prevalence grew.
The FBI's 2025 national statistics estimated an 18.1% decline in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter from 2024, with a national rate of 4.1 per 100,000 residents. Rifles accounted for 2.67% of firearm murders in 2025, compared with 4.8% in 1994.
The players
Crime Prevention Research Center
A research organization that analyzes crime statistics and firearm policy, and published this analysis of rifle murder shares.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The federal agency that compiles the Uniform Crime Reporting statistics used in the analysis and released 2025 national crime data.
The details
The analysis compared FBI homicide data from 1991 through 2025 against estimates of semiautomatic rifle availability. Average rifle murder shares were statistically tested across the ban period and the decade after its September 2004 expiration, averaging 3.86%.
Timeline
September 1994: Federal assault weapons ban took effect.
September 2004: Federal assault weapons ban expired without renewal.
Aug. 14, 2026: FBI released 2025 national crime statistics.
Nov. 4, 2026: Crime Prevention Research Center published the analysis.
Legal Context
The findings revisit the 1994 federal assault weapons ban, which expired in September 2004 without renewal. The analysis reports rifle murder shares averaged 4.9% during the ban and 3.86% across the decade after its expiration.
The findings bear on the policy debate over assault-style rifles, which affects residents in states and localities with active legal challenges such as Connecticut and Cook County, Illinois. Readers may see continued legislative and court activity on these restrictions.
The takeaway
Rifle murder shares remained relatively low even as estimated rifle ownership grew sharply, a pattern the analysis highlights for policymakers weighing renewal of assault weapons restrictions. Readers tracking the debate should weigh the analysis alongside official FBI data.
Further reading
For broader context on firearm homicide patterns, see Violence coverage across the United States.
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