Musk Sees Orbital Cargo Falling Below $100 per Kilogram

Elon Musk says SpaceX's reusable rockets could cut the cost of sending cargo to orbit from NASA's 2010 estimate of $18,500 per kilogram to under $100.

Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Space

Reusable rocket booster standing upright on a concrete launch pad at dawn beside a flat coastal landscape, with thin vapor rising from its base. — Elon Musk says SpaceX's reusable rockets could cut the cost of sending cargo to orbit from NASA's 2010 estimate of $18,500 per kilogram to under $100. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

Elon Musk estimated that delivering one kilogram of cargo to orbit will cost under $100, a sharp drop from the $18,500 per kilogram NASA cited in 2010. The projection rests on SpaceX's reusable rocket designs, including the Falcon 9 booster and the planned Starship system.

Why it matters

Lower launch costs would reshape how satellites, cargo and eventually crewed missions reach orbit. The estimate comes from Musk himself, so it reflects a company projection rather than an independently verified result.

Falcon 9 boosters are reused at approximately 80% of their structure while the upper stage is not reflown and costs roughly as much as a medium-sized jet. Musk's under-$100 estimate compares against NASA's $18,500 per kilogram figure from 2010, and the timeline for reaching that target was not stated.

The players

Elon Musk

Elon Musk is the chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla, and has led efforts to develop reusable rockets.

SpaceX

SpaceX is a private American aerospace manufacturer that develops the Falcon 9 and Starship launch vehicles.

NASA

NASA is the United States federal agency responsible for civil space exploration and research.

The details

Musk said the Falcon 9 booster returns and lands after each launch, which reduced costs relative to expendable rockets. The Starship system is designed for full reusability, and in August Musk said SpaceX expects to deliver up to 10 million tons of cargo per year to orbit with it. He also said SpaceX will be able to launch the Super Heavy booster every hour.

2010: NASA cited a cost to orbit of $18,500 per kilogram.
August 2026: Musk said SpaceX expects to deliver up to 10 million tons of cargo per year to orbit using Starship.
November 7, 2026: Musk estimated cargo delivery to orbit would cost under $100 per kilogram in an interview with Ron Baron.

Roadmap

NASA's 2010 estimate of $18,500 per kilogram marked the cost baseline that reusable launch vehicles now aim to beat by a wide margin. Musk's under-$100 projection places SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship programs at the center of that effort to reduce orbital access costs.

If Musk's projection holds, lower launch costs could make satellite deployment and cargo delivery to orbit cheaper over time. The source gives no timeline, so the practical effect on consumers and industries remains uncertain.

The takeaway

Reusable rocket designs are central to the projected drop in orbital launch costs, so watch for demonstrated per-kilogram figures rather than projections alone. Verified flight and cost data will indicate whether the under-$100 target is realistic.