Lemonade Forecasts First Positive Quarter on EBITDA
The insurer expects $5 million to $9 million in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2026, its first positive quarter on that measure.
Updated on Nov. 7, 2026 in Insurance
Lemonade forecasts $5 million to $9 million in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2026, which would be its first positive quarter on that measure. The company projects a full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $47 million to $51 million.
Why it matters
The forecast signals a potential turn toward profitability on an adjusted basis for the insurer, though the full-year loss projection shows the shift is not yet reflected across 2026. Lemonade did not reconcile the forecast with net loss because it could not reasonably determine some required adjustments.
Lemonade projects Q4 2026 revenue of $342 million to $346 million and full-year 2026 revenue of $1.231 billion to $1.235 billion, with IFP guidance of $1.632 billion to $1.639 billion at period-end. The forecast excludes a reconciliation to net loss, which the company said it could not reasonably determine.
The players
Lemonade, Inc.
Lemonade is a U.S. insurtech company that sells homeowners, renters, pet and car insurance using artificial intelligence-driven underwriting and claims processing.
The details
Lemonade expects to report positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2026 and anticipates its first positive full year on that measure in 2027. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, along with specified adjustments.
Timeline
Sept. 30, 2026: Quarter ended with IFP of $1.5508 billion, up 34% from a year earlier.
Nov. 5, 2026: Earnings call where the IFP growth outlook was stated.
Q4 2026: Forecast period for positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million to $9 million.
2027: Expected first positive full year on adjusted EBITDA.
Market Dynamics
Lemonade's Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $20.4 million from $25.6 million a year earlier, and the new forecast extends that trend into a projected positive fourth quarter. The company's 34% year-over-year IFP growth in Q3 and 33% growth outlook for Q4 indicate that premium expansion is continuing alongside the narrowing losses.
Investors tracking Lemonade will be watching whether the projected $5 million to $9 million fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA materializes, since the company has not reconciled that measure to net loss. Shareholders should note that the full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss projection of $47 million to $51 million still reflects a substantial shortfall for the year.
The takeaway
Adjusted EBITDA can show progress before net results do, so readers should compare forecasts against the company's reconciled figures once they are published. Lemonade's path to a positive full year in 2027 depends on sustaining the narrowing losses seen in recent quarters.
What happens next
Lemonade is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2026 results, which will show whether the forecast positive adjusted EBITDA is achieved.
Further reading
Explore more on Insurance to see how insurers like Lemonade are reshaping their business models.
Source note: This article includes information reported by TokenPost.
