Wall Street Forecasts Stock Gains Into Year-End

Major firms see U.S. equities rising through 2026 as retail investors have been net buyers for 22 straight sessions.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Stock Picks

Wall Street Forecasts Stock Gains Into Year-End

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Wall Street firms are forecasting U.S. stock gains into year-end 2026. Retail investors have been net buyers of U.S. cash equities for 22 consecutive trading sessions beginning Oct. 5, accumulating nearly $33 billion.

Why it matters

Net U.S. equity positioning among CTAs is near its lowest level since 2018, and valuations have compressed as earnings estimates rose. Together these conditions shape how investors read the outlook for the market heading into the coming months.

Retail investors bought roughly $33 billion of U.S. cash equities over 22 consecutive sessions beginning Oct. 5, while the Nasdaq-100's price-to-earnings ratio fell to 19.1, its lowest since October 2022. Whether these flows persist and whether valuations re-rate higher remains unresolved.

The players

JPMorgan

JPMorgan is a major U.S. investment bank whose strategists have maintained a tactical bullish stance on equities.

HSBC

HSBC is a global banking and financial services group whose analysts view a successful Anthropic IPO as a possible catalyst for technology stocks.

The details

JPMorgan has maintained a tactical bullish stance favoring a mix of technology and cyclical stocks. HSBC views a successful Anthropic IPO as a possible catalyst for broader improvement in sentiment toward technology stocks.

Oct. 5, 2026: Retail net buying of U.S. equities began and lasted 22 sessions.
Nov. 9, 2026: Companies representing 85% of the S&P 500's market value became eligible to repurchase shares.

Market Dynamics

Since 1938, the S&P 500 has risen in 95% of the 12-month periods following U.S. midterm elections, with an average gain of about 14%. The current forecast of further gains into year-end extends that post-midterm pattern, though corporate buybacks are expected to return only after the midterm elections.

Retail investors who hold U.S. equity exposure face a market where valuations have compressed while earnings estimates rose sharply for memory, AI infrastructure and semiconductors. Investors weighing portfolio allocations should consider how these forecasts compare with their own time horizons.

The takeaway

Forward earnings estimates for memory, AI infrastructure and semiconductors have risen 30% or more since late June, which has reduced technology valuations even as the market rallied. Investors should weigh whether that gap between estimates and prices persists before adjusting holdings.