Low-Risk Prostate Cancer Share Falls Sharply

A study of U.S. patient records finds fewer localized prostate cancers are classified as low-risk, and more low-risk patients are receiving no active treatment.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Cancer

Low-Risk Prostate Cancer Share Falls Sharply

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Would you trust your doctor to recommend monitoring instead of treatment for early prostate cancer?

Low-risk prostate cancer decreased as a share of localized diagnoses from 2010 to 2023 in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Over the same period, a growing share of low-risk patients received neither radiation nor prostatectomy.

Why it matters

The shift suggests that changing diagnostic patterns and treatment choices are reshaping how prostate cancer is managed across the United States. Understanding these trends helps clinicians and patients weigh monitoring against treatment.

Among 207,196 patients treated with radiation for localized prostate cancer, the low-risk share fell from 33.7% to 6.5% in SEER and from 22.9% to 2.0% in VA, while MROQC data stayed at 4.2% or below. The data do not explain the drivers behind these changes.

The players

Steven M. Monda

Lead author of the study and a researcher at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

University of Michigan

A public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan, where the lead author is affiliated.

The details

Researchers analyzed localized prostate cancer patients from SEER, Veterans Affairs, and the Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium. Low-risk disease was defined as grade group 1, prostate-specific antigen below 10 ng/mL, and clinical stage T2a or lower. The study was published online in Cancer on October 26, 2026.

SEER data covers 2010 to 2023.
VA data covers 2020 to 2024.
MROQC data covers 2021 to 2025.
The study was published online in Cancer on October 26, 2026.

Big Picture

The trend builds on the active surveillance approach for low-risk prostate cancer that has been encouraged for patients whose tumors grow slowly. The findings show that this approach is now applied more widely across both SEER and VA populations.

Men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer may increasingly be offered monitoring without immediate radiation or surgery. Patients should discuss the tradeoffs of active surveillance with their clinicians.

The takeaway

Low-risk prostate cancer is being identified less often in localized diagnoses and treated less often with radiation or surgery across several U.S. data sources. Patients with low-risk disease should review monitoring options with their care team.