Hegseth Leads Odds to Be Next Cabinet Exit
Prediction market traders now favor Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the most likely Trump Cabinet member to leave next.
Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in International Trade
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Traders on Polymarket favored Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the most likely next Trump Cabinet member to leave, with the market showing him at roughly 31% as of Friday. The House may vote as early as next week on articles of impeachment against him.
Why it matters
Hegseth's role in the Iran war has fueled calls for his ouster, with articles of impeachment accusing him of waging the war without congressional approval. The market reflects growing speculation about Cabinet turnover across the United States government.
Polymarket odds put Hegseth at roughly 31%, Wiles at 24% and Rubio at 8%, with about 27% odds of no Cabinet departure before 2027. The market has drawn nearly $190,000 in trading volume, but the odds reflect trader expectations rather than confirmed plans to leave.
The players
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth is the U.S. Secretary of Defense, whose conduct of the Iran war has drawn impeachment articles from House Republicans.
Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie is a Republican congressman from Kentucky who plans to revive articles of impeachment against Hegseth.
Susie Wiles
Susie Wiles is White House chief of staff and a target of blame following Republican midterm losses.
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio is the U.S. Secretary of State who publicly rejected speculation that he would leave the Cabinet.
Caroline Sunshine
Caroline Sunshine is a former Trump aide who called for Wiles's resignation in a Fox News interview.
The details
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie plans to revive articles of impeachment against Hegseth after the GOP's midterm losses. Former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine called for Wiles's resignation in a Fox News interview on Wednesday, while Rubio has discussed stepping down with White House officials, who asked him to stay, according to Bloomberg.
Timeline
Midterm elections were held on November 3, 2026, with prediction markets having favored Democrats to win Congress.
On Wednesday, November 4, Caroline Sunshine called for Wiles's resignation on Fox News.
On Friday, November 6, Hegseth led the Polymarket Cabinet-departure market at roughly 31%.
This week, Rubio publicly rejected exit speculation in an interview with The New York Times.
The House could vote as early as next week on articles of impeachment against Hegseth.
Market Dynamics
Cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration has been a recurring pattern, and this market extends that pattern into a post-midterm reckoning over who should take the blame. The current odds track that churn but do not confirm that any official is preparing to leave.
Traders and investors tracking political risk may find prediction markets a useful gauge of Cabinet instability, though the odds are not a guarantee of personnel changes. Any shift in defense leadership could affect defense-sector contracts and the broader policy outlook.
The takeaway
Prediction markets can reveal where traders see political risk building, but they are a sentiment signal rather than a forecast of actual departures. Readers should watch for confirmed resignations or a formal House vote before drawing conclusions.
What happens next
The House could vote as early as next week on articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Further reading
For more on how markets price political risk, see International Trade.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Fortune.
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