Grand Canyon Education Projects 7% Enrollment Growth

The education company expects enrollment across its three platforms to rise more than 7% in 2027 despite a ground-enrollment shortfall.

Updated on Nov. 6, 2026 in Distance Learning

Grand Canyon Education Projects 7% Enrollment Growth

Grand Canyon Education reported that total enrollments rose 5.2% and total revenue rose 2.4% in the third quarter, while new enrollments across its three platforms were flat. The company projects enrollment across all three platforms will increase more than 7% in 2027.

Why it matters

A shortfall in new ground enrollment is expected to affect the fourth quarter and has lowered the company's projected operating margin. Management is relying on online lead generation and improving conversion to offset weaker in-person intake.

Grand Canyon Education's third-quarter total enrollments grew 5.2% and total revenue grew 2.4%, while new enrollments across all three platforms were flat. Management's 2027 projections call for ground enrollment growth above 10% and online growth of 5% to 6%, but the company has not yet shown that these forecasts will reverse the Q4 shortfall.

The players

Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ: LOPE)

Grand Canyon Education is a publicly traded education company that operates online, hybrid, and ground university platforms.

The details

Management expects mid-single-digit growth in online new enrollments this quarter, citing strong lead generation and improving conversion. Growth initiatives for fall 2027 include Common App, new programs, an expanded Honors College, and a law school.

Q3 2026: Third-quarter results showed mixed new and total enrollment growth.
Q4 2026: A shortfall in new ground enrollment is expected to affect the quarter.
Fall 2027: Ground, online, and hybrid enrollment growth is forecast.

Culture Shift

Grand Canyon Education's mix of online, hybrid, and ground enrollment reflects a broader movement of U.S. higher education toward flexible delivery models. The company's projections suggest that flexible formats are driving more of its growth than traditional campus intake.

Students comparing online, hybrid, and ground programs can see that enrollment growth is concentrated in flexible formats. Families weighing a degree should check program availability and delivery format before committing, since intake patterns are shifting.

The takeaway

Enrollment growth in higher education is increasingly coming from flexible online and hybrid formats rather than traditional campuses. Prospective students should weigh delivery format alongside program quality when choosing a school.

What happens next

Management expects the fourth-quarter shortfall in new ground enrollment and the fall 2027 growth initiatives to shape the company's results in the coming quarters.