Vietnam Tops US Trade Surplus List

Businesses expect no near-term change in US trade policy toward Vietnam despite its record goods surplus with the United States.

Updated on Nov. 5, 2026 in International Trade

Vietnam overtook China and Mexico to become the country with the largest goods trade surplus with the US, reaching nearly $190 billion in the first nine months of the year. Businesses expect no near-term change in the US trade stance toward Vietnam.

Why it matters

The surplus, about 47% higher than a year earlier, adds pressure to ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Hanoi that have continued for more than a year. It also shows how US trade policy toward transshipped Chinese exports is reshaping the balance of trade across Asia for the United States.

The US Census trade data shows Vietnam's surplus of nearly $190 billion in the first nine months, about 47% above the prior year, while China's surplus fell to roughly $130 billion from nearly $163 billion. Two other US probes could add duties on Vietnam as early as November 2026, and the outcome of trade talks remains unresolved.

The players

Trump administration

The administration of President Donald Trump, which imposed the 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods and oversees ongoing US trade policy.

Vietnam Foreign Ministry

The Vietnamese government ministry that said trade talks with the United States were continuing as of November 5, 2026.

The details

The Trump administration imposed a general 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods in July, citing alleged failures to prevent imports of products made with forced labour. The tariff partly replaced 20% duties that the Supreme Court struck down, and US officials have repeatedly accused Vietnam of serving as a transshipment hub for Chinese exports. Vietnam has launched campaigns against illegal transshipment and other violations flagged by Washington.

July: The Trump administration imposed the 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods.
First nine months of the year: Vietnam's surplus with the US reached nearly $190 billion.
November 5, 2026: Vietnam's Foreign Ministry said trade talks with the US continued.

Market Dynamics

The 12.5% tariff replaces the 20% duties that the Supreme Court struck down, shifting US tariff policy from one legal footing to another. The Vietnam surplus now sits alongside China's narrowing surplus, reflecting how trade flows are being redirected across Asia under the revised tariff framework.

Shifts in US tariffs on Vietnamese goods can change import costs for American businesses that source products from Vietnam. Investors and companies with exposure to Vietnamese supply chains may need to monitor how the pending probes and trade talks affect pricing and sourcing decisions.

The takeaway

Trade surpluses can shift quickly as tariffs change, so businesses sourcing from Vietnam may benefit from tracking US trade data releases and pending probe outcomes. Monitoring official filings can help clarify how duties may evolve.

What happens next

Two other US probes could result in additional duties on Vietnam as early as November 2026, and the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations remains pending.