Lame-Duck Session Shapes Energy Policy Ahead
Analysts project U.S. oil and gas production and power prices will follow current trends after Democrats gained House control in the 2026 midterms.
Updated on Nov. 4, 2026 in Data Centers
Live Poll
Do you expect your household's energy bills to go up over the next year?
Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie analysts project U.S. oil and gas production will continue its current trajectory after Democrats gained House control in the Nov. 4, 2026 midterm elections. A Democratic-controlled House can block further repeals of solar and wind tax credits but cannot restore credits already removed without bipartisan Senate support.
Why it matters
The shift in House control changes what Congress can pass on energy, while cost concerns tied to data center demand are creating common ground across parties on affordability. Federal mandates for data center energy costs face legal and political resistance, leaving states to set cost allocation policy.
Wood Mackenzie's base case projects U.S. load growth of 3% and wholesale power prices rising 46% between 2026 and 2035. Federal large-load cost mandates for data centers face unresolved legal and political resistance.
The players
Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and consultancy firm that publishes market analysis on oil, gas, and power.
Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global energy and natural resources research and consulting firm known for long-term commodity and power price forecasts.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, who retains veto authority over legislation passed by Congress.
The details
A Democratic House can block further repeals of solar and wind tax credits but cannot restore those already removed without Senate support. Wood Mackenzie identifies permitting reform as the likeliest route to faster gas, transmission, and wind approvals, while a presidential veto makes new renewable subsidies unlikely.
Timeline
Nov. 4, 2026: Midterm elections give Democrats control of the House.
Before Jan. 3: Lame-duck session shapes the incoming Democratic majority's position.
2026 to 2035: Projected U.S. load growth and wholesale power price increases.
Roadmap
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) is backed by Senate architects and a coalition spanning clean energy, oil and gas, mining, and trade unions. Its prospects now depend on the lame-duck session and the incoming Democratic House majority.
Households and businesses may see wholesale power prices rise 46% between 2026 and 2035 in Wood Mackenzie's base case, with pressure driven by data center demand. State governments will set cost allocation rules for data centers, affecting how those costs reach ratepayers.
The takeaway
Energy costs have become a shared concern across parties, and state-level decisions on data center cost allocation will likely determine how much of that burden reaches everyday consumers.
What happens next
The lame-duck session before Jan. 3 is the most consequential near-term window for Congress to act on energy legislation.
Further reading
Explore more on Data Centers to see how rising load growth is reshaping the national power grid.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Midland Reporter-Telegram.
Live Poll
Do you expect your household's energy bills to go up over the next year?
