Midterm Bets on Prediction Markets Hit Record
Americans have wagered more than $1.4 billion on the midterm elections on prediction market platforms ahead of Tuesday's vote.
Updated on Nov. 3, 2026 in Gambling
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Americans are placing bets on the U.S. midterm elections on prediction markets at record levels, with more than $1.4 billion wagered so far. Traders buy and sell yes or no contracts on race outcomes and related variables as polls close Tuesday night.
Why it matters
Prediction markets gained mainstream attention after signaling Donald Trump would win the presidency in 2024, and their growing presence now extends into the midterms. The surge reflects a broader expansion of betting-style products into political outcomes across the country.
More than $1.4 billion has been wagered on the midterms on prediction markets, and Adjacent Markets raised $2.5 million this summer to build an index-based business. The prior-cycle comparison and final payout totals have not been reported.
The players
Kalshi
Kalshi is a prediction market platform that serves as a silver-level sponsor of the Futures Industry Association's annual conference.
Adjacent Markets
Adjacent Markets is a company that raised $2.5 million this summer to build an index-based business aggregating prediction market contracts.
Noah Poser
Noah Poser is a bettor with wagers in the six figures on a Democratic showing who estimates profits of as much as $30,000 if he wins.
Yadin Eldar
Yadin Eldar is a bettor who anticipates large-scale Democratic victories and places bets on Republican candidates in Florida.
The details
Traders buy and sell yes or no contracts on race outcomes and variables, and Adjacent Markets aggregates those contracts into tradable indexes or benchmarks. Individual bettors are placing large positions, with one bettor holding wagers in the six-figure range on a Democratic showing and another saying he wagers no more than $20 on any single bet.
Timeline
- 2024: Prediction markets gained prominence by signaling Trump would win the presidency.
- Summer 2026: Adjacent Markets raised $2.5 million to build its index business.
- October 2026: NEXTPredict drew more than 2,000 prediction market participants in New York.
- Late October 2026: The Adjacent team traveled to Chicago for a Kalshi election eve party.
- Tuesday, November 3, 2026: Midterm polls close and bettors track results.
Season Trajectory
Prediction markets rose to national prominence in 2024 when they signaled a Trump presidential win, and the record midterm wagering extends that trend into congressional races. The growth of index-based products and industry conferences suggests the sector is expanding beyond single-event bets.
Readers considering prediction market wagers should note that contracts are priced on yes or no outcomes and that some states, such as Nevada, have severely restricted these offerings. Bettors weighing potential returns should account for how positions settle once election results are certified.
The takeaway
Prediction markets are moving from niche forecasting tools into mainstream election betting, and readers should weigh the potential for both gains and losses before committing funds to outcome contracts.
What happens next
Midterm polls close Tuesday, November 3, 2026, at which point wagers on race outcomes will be settled against the results.
Further reading
Explore more on Gambling to see how prediction markets fit within the wider betting landscape.
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Should prediction markets be allowed to offer betting on election outcomes?
