Independent Voters to Shape 2026 Midterm Elections

Nearly half of U.S. voters identify as politically independent, a bloc that could influence the November midterms.

Updated on Nov. 2, 2026 in Political Parties

Independent Voters to Shape 2026 Midterm Elections

Live Poll

Would you vote for an independent candidate over a Democrat or Republican this year?

Nearly half of U.S. voters, as many as 117 million adults, identify as politically independent, though most still lean toward one of the two major parties. Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, for the midterm elections.

Why it matters

The size of the independent bloc gives its voters potential leverage over close races and could pressure the major parties to adjust their strategies. Independent-aligned candidates are testing whether voter dissatisfaction can translate into electoral results.

As many as 117 million U.S. adults identify as politically independent, nearly half of all voters, while the Independent Leadership Council has raised more than $10 million for independent congressional candidates. The current independent representation is limited to one member in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate, and it remains unclear how many independent candidates will win seats in November.

The players

Joe Manchin

Former Democratic U.S. senator from West Virginia who became an independent and launched the Independent Leadership Council to support independent congressional candidates.

Independent Leadership Council

Political organization launched by Joe Manchin that has raised more than $10 million to support independent candidates for Congress.

The details

The Independent Leadership Council, launched by former Democrat-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, provides donors and campaign resources for independent congressional candidates. Analysts are watching independent candidates Dan Osborn in Nebraska and Seth Bodnar in Montana, along with whether the major parties adjust their strategies in response to this voter bloc.

Tuesday, November 3, 2026: Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections.

Political Context

Gallup polling has documented a long-running rise in the share of Americans identifying as independents, a trend that the 2026 midterms could test at the ballot box. Most independents still gravitate toward one of the two major parties, which is a limit on how far that shift can reshape electoral outcomes.

Voters who identify as independent may find more candidates running outside the two-party system on their ballots this November. Their choices at the polls could shape which party controls Congress, affecting federal policy on taxes, regulation and government spending.

The takeaway

Independent voters now make up nearly half of the electorate, so paying attention to candidates outside the two major parties is worth the effort before the November 3 vote. Checking where candidates stand on specific issues can help you decide whether a non-party choice fits your priorities.

What happens next

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, when the midterm elections will determine whether independent candidates gain seats in Congress.