Lyme Disease Lifetime Risk Estimated in New Study

A new modeling study quantifies the lifetime risk of Lyme disease diagnosis for residents living in high-incidence U.S. states.

Updated on Oct. 23, 2026 in Allergies

A close-up macro view of an eastern black-legged tick resting on a vibrant green oak leaf in a temperate forest. — Researchers estimate that residents in high-incidence U.S. states face a 13.7% lifetime risk of receiving a Lyme disease diagnosis by age 84. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Researchers have estimated that the lifetime risk of receiving a Lyme disease diagnosis reaches 13.7% for residents in high-incidence states by age 84. The study identified 15 high-incidence states plus Washington, DC, where regional risks vary significantly.

Why it matters

Understanding the lifetime probability of a diagnosis helps quantify the burden of Lyme disease in regions where infection rates are disproportionately high. This data highlights that more than half of the total lifetime risk occurs before the age of 50.

A modeling study calculated that 32.5% of Vermont residents have a lifetime risk of contracting Lyme disease, compared to 28.7% in Connecticut and 25.5% in Rhode Island. Researchers analyzed mortality and claims data for 60 million people.

The details

The analysis focused on 15 states identified as high-incidence areas for Lyme disease, with Maine and New Hampshire also showing elevated risks of 24.7% and 19.2%, respectively. Researchers utilized a claims algorithm to track cumulative probability across various age groups and geographic regions.

The insurance claims data analyzed in the study spanned from 2016 to 2023.

Health Landscape

This study updates the figures previously established by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's established high-incidence state reporting criteria. It provides a clearer picture of how Lyme disease accumulation shifts across different age milestones.

Residents in high-incidence states should maintain awareness of tick-borne illness symptoms, especially before the age of 50 when the majority of lifetime risk accumulates. Understanding these regional probabilities can help individuals better assess their personal exposure levels.

The takeaway

Lyme disease risk is not uniform across the country and remains significantly higher in specific northeastern regions. Residents in affected states can prioritize preventative measures to reduce their cumulative exposure over time.