Jefferies Warns of Challenges for On Holding Growth
Financial analysts suggest a more difficult growth environment for the running shoe brand heading into 2027.
Updated on Oct. 23, 2026 in Running
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Jefferies issued a warning on October 23, 2026, regarding future growth prospects for On Holding amid a shift in the premium running footwear market. The firm highlights weakening consumer demand and increased promotional activity as potential headwinds.
Why it matters
The premium running market is experiencing a shift characterized by rising promotional activity and stronger competition from incumbents like Nike. These macro conditions threaten the sustainability of full-price selling strategies for companies like On Holding.
On Holding relies on paid search for 53.8% of its US website traffic, a reliance that underscores its customer acquisition strategy. Meanwhile, HOKA reported 7% total revenue growth in Q2 2026, with wholesale sales rising 9% and direct-to-consumer sales up 4%.
The players
Jefferies
Jefferies is a global investment banking firm that provides research and analysis on publicly traded companies.
On Holding
On Holding is a Swiss-based performance footwear and apparel company known for its cushioned running shoe technology.
Deckers Outdoor Corp
Deckers Outdoor Corp is the parent company of the HOKA brand and manages a portfolio of various footwear labels.
Nike
Nike is a global athletic footwear and apparel leader currently strengthening its competitive position in the running market.
The details
On Holding currently maintains healthy gross margins by prioritizing full-price sales, but analysts project a tougher growth environment through 2027. Rising global inventories may limit the company's ability to maintain these price points as consumer demand fluctuates.
Timeline
HOKA revenue grew 7% during Q2 2026.
On Holding faces a projected tougher growth environment in 2027.
Season Trajectory
This analysis tracks how On Holding navigates the historical shift in the premium footwear market toward increased promotional discounting. The firm's performance reflects the ongoing battle for market share as incumbents like Nike reclaim presence in the running category.
On Holding's high reliance on paid search traffic could impact the long-term cost of customer acquisition if advertising prices increase. Shoppers should monitor whether the company sustains its current full-price selling strategy as market competition intensifies.
The takeaway
Investors and consumers should watch for any changes in On Holding pricing strategies as inventory levels grow across the footwear industry. A shift toward heavy discounting often signals that a brand is struggling to maintain its premium market position.
Further reading
For broader trends in the athletic footwear space, visit our Running section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Proactiveinvestors NA.
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