Wells Fargo To Keep Outlook After November 3 Midterms

The firm expects national economic conditions to remain the primary driver for markets regardless of the election outcome.

Updated on Oct. 22, 2026 in Economic Indicators

Isometric editorial illustration of balance scales holding a geometric block and metal ingot, representing stable financial market projections. — The Wells Fargo Investment Institute will maintain its current market outlook post-midterms, prioritizing macroeconomic indicators like corporate earnings and inflation. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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The Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced that its current market outlook will remain unchanged following the November 3 midterm elections. Analysts project that economic factors like corporate earnings and inflation will continue to outweigh political shifts in Congress.

Why it matters

The firm emphasizes that macroeconomic indicators remain more influential for investors than the specific balance of power in Washington. This suggests that market stability is expected to persist despite potential changes in legislative control.

A study of 23 congressional terms from 1979-80 through 2023-24 shows nearly identical economic performance regardless of party control. Treasury borrowing and deficits are expected to keep long-term interest rates elevated through 2027.

The players

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

This organization provides strategic investment advice and market analysis for the global financial services firm Wells Fargo.

The details

The institute currently favors U.S. large-cap stocks, short-term taxable fixed-income assets, and commodities, while remaining unfavorable on long-term taxable fixed income. Its projections are based on an analysis of inflation-adjusted growth over two-year legislative cycles.

The historical comparison covers 23 Congresses from 1979-80 through 2023-24.
Midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Long-term interest rates are expected to remain elevated through 2027.

Macro View

The report analyzes the 1979-2024 cumulative real GDP growth patterns to contextualize current election market fears. By looking at these historical cycles, the firm shows that economic growth often remains consistent despite shifts in the legislative landscape.

Investors should focus on broad economic signals such as inflation and earnings rather than short-term political shifts in Washington. While interest rates are expected to remain high through 2027, the institute's current asset preference remains stable across all election scenarios.

The takeaway

Market performance is historically resilient to changes in congressional control. Investors are encouraged to prioritize long-term economic data over the immediate outcomes of the upcoming midterm elections.