Conference Board Reports Leading Economic Index Gains

The U.S. Leading Economic Index shows moderate improvement as growth forecasts for the coming years are raised.

Updated on Oct. 22, 2026 in Economic Indicators

Conference Board Reports Leading Economic Index Gains

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The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index reached 99.6 in September, bolstered by improvements in eight of its ten components over the last six months. Consequently, the organization has increased its real GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

Why it matters

These indicators provide a forward-looking perspective on the U.S. economy, helping analysts determine the likelihood of future expansion or contraction. The recent shift in growth projections suggests a more optimistic outlook for the national economy than previously anticipated.

The Leading Economic Index rose 0.6 percent over the six months ending in September, with the Coincident Economic Index climbing to 115.3 and the Lagging Economic Index reaching 121.1. Manufacturing output also saw a 0.3 percent increase in September.

The players

The Conference Board

This independent business membership and research organization provides widely tracked economic data and analysis for the global market.

The details

The index remained unchanged at 99.6 in September after an August decline of 0.1 percent, while July figures were revised upward to a 0.3 percent increase. Despite these positive indicators, the consumer confidence index fell to 81.9, a level not seen since April 2014.

April 2014 was the last time the consumer confidence index reached its current September level.
July 2026 saw an upward revision to the monthly index increase from 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent.
August 2026 marked a 0.1 percent decline in the Leading Economic Index.
September 2026 saw the Leading Economic Index hold steady at 99.6.
2027 is the target year for the projected 2.0 percent real GDP growth.

Macro View

The current economic trajectory follows the threshold parameters set by the recession warning system, which tracks annualized six-month declines. The recent data provides an outlook that remains significantly more stable than the conditions typically preceding historical recessionary periods.

The upward revision of GDP growth forecasts may signal potential improvements in long-term job security and national economic stability for American families. However, the decline in consumer confidence suggests that individual households remain cautious about their current financial outlook.

The takeaway

Economic indicators show mixed signals, balancing improved manufacturing and leading index growth against softening consumer sentiment. Readers should monitor these conflicting trends as they weigh the potential for long-term growth against current household economic concerns.