Goldman Sachs to Forecast 3.9 Million Home Sales in 2027

The firm predicts that existing home sales will remain suppressed through 2027 amid high interest rates.

Updated on Oct. 21, 2026 in Residential

Bold vector editorial illustration of a suburban house with a large brass keyhole, representing the housing market lock-in effect. — Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. existing home sales will remain at 3.9 million in 2027 as high mortgage rates limit market supply. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Goldman Sachs projects that existing U.S. home sales will total 3.9 million in 2027 as the market continues to grapple with restricted inventory and high financing costs. This outlook follows a September 2026 annualized pace of 3.99 million sales.

Why it matters

The persistent gap between existing low-rate mortgages and current market rates continues to discourage homeowners from selling their properties. This lock-in effect limits supply and makes entering the housing market increasingly difficult for first-time buyers.

The median home sale price reached $417,500, a 1.3 percent increase from the previous year. As of October 15, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 7.40 percent.

The players

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking and financial services firm that provides analysis on macroeconomic trends and market forecasts.

The details

Homeowners who secured lower mortgage rates previously are choosing to retain those loans rather than listing their homes, creating a stalemate in transaction volume. While first-time buyers made up 31 percent of sales in September 2026, many younger millennials remain sidelined by current affordability hurdles.

Existing-home sales totaled 5.34 million in 2019.
The mortgage rate gap averaged 2.54 percentage points in Q2 2024.
First-time buyer shares were surveyed between July 2024 and June 2025.
Annualized existing-home sales reached 3.99 million in September 2026.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40 percent on October 15, 2026.

Culture Shift

The 2.54 percentage point mortgage rate gap recorded in Q2 2024 explains why homeowners are reluctant to trade their current fixed loans for higher market rates. This trend suggests a long-term shift where housing mobility is tethered to historical interest rate environments.

Potential homebuyers should anticipate ongoing inventory constraints and high financing costs when budgeting for a home purchase. Those planning to enter the market will need to factor the 7.40 percent average mortgage rate into their long-term monthly housing affordability calculations.

The takeaway

Homeowners currently holding low-rate mortgages are likely to maintain their ownership status to avoid higher interest costs. Buyers should focus on long-term financial planning as market projections suggest that restricted inventory levels may persist for several years.