ARK Predicts Tesla Share Price Could Hit $4,400 by 2031

The investment firm projects significant growth driven by robotaxi expansion and a potential future merger with SpaceX.

Updated on Oct. 20, 2026 in Electric Vehicles

ARK Predicts Tesla Share Price Could Hit $4,400 by 2031

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ARK Investment Management forecasts a target share price of $4,400 for Tesla by 2031, citing the rapid growth of its robotaxi services. The firm also anticipates a potential merger between the automaker and SpaceX within the next five years.

Why it matters

ARK expects robotaxi operations to eventually account for 80% of Tesla enterprise value, representing a massive shift in its business model. The firm suggests this revenue flow could help finance SpaceX orbital data centers, while frontier AI models from SpaceX support the development of Optimus.

Tesla currently reports 15 billion cumulative miles driven with FSD Supervised and maintains 1.5 million paid customers. The company has also expanded its robotaxi service to seven U.S. cities.

The players

ARK Investment Management

This is an American investment management firm founded by Cathie Wood that focuses on thematic investing in disruptive innovation.

Tesla

This is a global leader in electric vehicle manufacturing, energy storage solutions, and autonomous driving technology.

Elon Musk

He is the chief executive officer of Tesla and SpaceX and serves as a central figure in the leadership of both companies.

SpaceX

This is a private aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company that designs and operates advanced rockets and spacecraft.

The details

Tesla reported that Elon Musk holds a 19.8% ownership stake in the company and received $158.36 billion in compensation during 2025 based on award valuations. Projections estimate that a combined Tesla-SpaceX entity could reach $3.8 trillion in revenue by 2031.

September 30, 2026: Reporting date for Musk's share ownership stake.
October 19, 2026: Tesla stock ended a four-day slide on Monday.
October 21, 2026: Tesla will release third-quarter earnings results.
December 3, 2026: Annual meeting for shareholder board vote.
2031: Target year for ARK's $4,400 stock price projection.

Roadmap

This projection highlights the industry-wide transition from traditional hardware manufacturing toward software-defined services like autonomous fleets. It positions Tesla to compete not just with automakers, but as a dominant player in the global infrastructure of AI-driven mobility.

The volatility in Tesla stock directly affects retail investors holding positions in the company through brokerage accounts or retirement funds. Potential buyers should monitor the upcoming earnings report to see how robotaxi expansion and compensation figures influence current share pricing.

The takeaway

Investors should note that long-term projections by firms like ARK often depend on the successful scaling of autonomous technology across major urban markets. Maintaining a balanced portfolio remains essential as Tesla navigates the transition toward robotaxi-centric operations.

What happens next

Tesla is scheduled to release its third-quarter earnings results on October 21, 2026, followed by an annual meeting for a shareholder board vote on December 3, 2026.