Commercial Real Estate Faces Refinancing Risks Through 2028

Newmark reports that $179 billion in low-rate debt faces significant maturity challenges.

Updated on Oct. 16, 2026 in Commercial

Bold flat-color editorial illustration featuring a towering, monolithic grid structure representing systemic financial weight and commercial debt. — Approximately $179 billion in U.S. commercial real estate debt is reaching maturity by 2028, forcing property owners to refinance at higher interest rates. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Approximately $179 billion in commercial real estate debt is set to mature by 2028, exposing borrowers to higher interest rates. Lenders are increasingly abandoning past debt-extension strategies as loan delinquency rates rise.

Why it matters

Many of these loans were underwritten during a period of historic lows in debt costs and high asset valuations. With interest rates likely to remain elevated, property owners face steep increases in refinancing costs that threaten portfolio stability.

A total of 78% of fixed-rate securitized commercial real estate debt carries interest rates currently below 10-year Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, the office sector has reached a 12.16% delinquency rate.

The players

Newmark

Newmark is a global commercial real estate advisory firm that provides services to owners, occupiers, and investors.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is the central banking system of the United States that regulates monetary policy and sets benchmark interest rates.

The details

Lenders are shifting away from the extend-and-pretend approach that defined the market for the last four years. Borrowers now face a landscape where impending maturity dates require refinancing at costs that are significantly higher than previous agreements.

September 2026: CMBS delinquency rates climbed to 8.02%.
October 2026: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet.
Through 2028: $179 billion in commercial debt is scheduled to mature.

Culture Shift

This wave of maturing debt marks a departure from the pandemic-era reliance on lenient lending practices. Property owners are forced to abandon speculative growth strategies in favor of immediate capital preservation as the Federal Reserve's interest rate environment dictates higher borrowing costs.

The stress on commercial loans may lead to tighter credit availability for local business expansion and real estate development. Shoppers and tenants may see changes in property management or rent adjustments as owners struggle to balance increased debt servicing costs.

The takeaway

Property owners should prepare for higher debt servicing costs by evaluating asset valuations and cash flows before maturity dates arrive. Proactive engagement with lenders is essential as the market moves away from the leniency of the past four years.