Democrats Will Likely Win Control of Congress
Midterm election projections forecast that Democrats will secure majorities in both the House and Senate this November.
Updated on Oct. 11, 2026 in Elections
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CNN analyst Harry Enten projected in October 2026 that the Democratic Party has a 67 percent probability of winning control of both chambers of Congress. The forecast suggests Democrats will hold 54 Senate seats following the midterm elections in November.
Why it matters
The shift is attributed to Democratic polling gains in states including Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, and Kansas. Meanwhile, the Republican outlook is hampered by low presidential approval ratings and the performance of certain candidates.
Analysis indicates President Donald Trump holds a -56 net approval rating on inflation. Additionally, Senator John Husted and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton currently face net approval ratings of -13 and -16, respectively.
The players
Harry Enten
He is a senior data analyst and reporter for CNN who focuses on polling and election forecasting.
Donald Trump
He is the current President of the United States.
John Husted
He is a United States Senator.
Ken Paxton
He is the Attorney General of Texas.
The details
The analysis evaluates candidate net approval ratings and President Trump's standing across various policy issues. Projections indicate the Democratic Party is polling to gain seats in Texas, Maine, and Ohio ahead of the upcoming legislative contests.
Timeline
Harry Enten released midterm election projections in October 2026.
Midterm elections occur in November 2026.
Political Context
Opponents frequently challenge such projections by emphasizing the volatility of late-breaking voter sentiment and local campaigning efforts. Dissenting groups often point to the historical difficulty of polling to accurately predict turnout in midterm environments.
The potential shift in congressional control may influence federal policy priorities and tax regulation changes for taxpayers. Voters should monitor specific candidates in their local districts as these legislative outcomes determine the trajectory of national infrastructure funding.
The takeaway
These projections highlight the significant role that candidate net approval ratings play in determining the balance of power in Washington. Voters can use these forecasts as an indicator of which states are currently viewed as the most competitive in the final weeks before the election.
Further reading
For more on the upcoming legislative races, visit the United States Elections section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Mediaite.
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