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Coinbase Launched Crypto Price Prediction Markets

The platform now allows U.S. users to bet on the price direction of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Updated on Oct. 6, 2026 in Investing

Isometric editorial illustration of two contrasting geometric blocks tilted in opposite directions, representing binary market price predictions.
Coinbase has introduced new U.S. prediction markets, enabling users to place binary bets on the price direction of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. AI Illustration. Upload story photo >

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Coinbase introduced live crypto price prediction markets, allowing users to bet on whether the prices of specific assets will rise or fall. The service offers binary contracts that pay out $1 for correct calls and $0 for incorrect ones.

Why it matters

This rollout represents a strategic expansion for Coinbase to consolidate various trading products into a single interface. By offering prediction markets, the company aims to diversify its platform offerings for active crypto traders.

Users can trade contracts on assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB with durations starting at 15 minutes. These contracts reflect crowd-implied probabilities and are funded using USD or USDC.

The players

Coinbase

Coinbase is a major cryptocurrency exchange platform that provides services for trading, storing, and managing digital assets.

Coinbase Financial Markets

This subsidiary entity operates as the regulated arm for Coinbase to offer specialized trading products like prediction markets.

Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that provided the underlying infrastructure for earlier Coinbase initiatives.

The details

Offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, the new feature allows participants to select an asset, choose a timeframe, and stake their prediction on an upward or downward movement. Contracts are settled in a binary format, where the final value depends entirely on whether the participant correctly predicted the price direction.

Timeline

  1. December 17, 2025: Coinbase initiated its first prediction market rollout.

  2. Late January 2026: The expansion of Kalshi-powered prediction markets was completed.

  3. October 6, 2026: Coinbase officially launched live crypto price prediction markets.

Market Dynamics

The launch of these markets follows the precedent set by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's event contract regulations regarding retail financial speculation. This move signals a broader shift as major exchanges increasingly integrate derivative-style betting products into their core business.

Users can now leverage their existing USD or USDC holdings to participate in these short-term binary contracts. However, residents in states like Nevada remain unable to access these specific trading tools, limiting participation based on geographic location.

The takeaway

These prediction markets offer a way for traders to speculate on the price movement of major assets using short-duration contracts. Users should exercise caution as binary contracts involve binary risk where a wrong call results in the total loss of the wagered amount.

Further reading

Learn more about the evolving landscape of digital asset services in our Investing section.

Source note: This article includes information reported by Crypto Briefing.

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Is now a good time for individual investors to participate in short-term crypto price betting?