BMO Analysts Weighed Merck and Bristol Myers Outlooks
Analysts evaluated the strategies of two major pharmaceutical companies as they prepare for significant patent cliffs.
Updated on Oct. 2, 2026 in Healthcare
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BMO Capital Markets has issued a report contrasting the patent cliff strategies of Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb. Analysts expressed greater confidence in Merck's pipeline compared to the current assets held by Bristol Myers Squibb.
Why it matters
Both companies face a major 2028 deadline when key revenue drivers lose patent exclusivity. The ability to successfully transition to new products will determine the long-term financial stability of these pharmaceutical giants.
Merck faces $33 billion in revenue at risk from Keytruda, while Bristol Myers Squibb sees $24.4 billion in combined global sales at risk from Opdivo and Eliquis. Merck shares have climbed 43% since the start of 2026.
The players
Merck
This global pharmaceutical company is headquartered in New Jersey and manufactures the blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda.
Bristol Myers Squibb
This biopharmaceutical corporation is based in New Jersey and focuses on developing medicines for serious diseases.
BMO Capital Markets
This financial institution provides investment banking and research services to clients across North America.
The details
Merck is positioning pipeline products like intismeran autogene, Winrevair, and sac-TMT to offset future losses, while Bristol Myers Squibb is banking on clinical readouts for Cobenfy and milvexian. BMO analysts consider Merck’s growth assets to be more derisked than the current portfolio of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Timeline
2023: Merck acquired Prometheus Biosciences for $10.8 billion, and Bristol Myers Squibb acquired Karuna Therapeutics for $14 billion.
2025: Bristol Myers Squibb’s drug Cobenfy generated $155 million in sales.
September 9, 2026: BMO Capital Markets released its report on pharmaceutical revenue risk.
End of 2028: Keytruda, Opdivo, and Eliquis lose patent exclusivity.
Early 2027: Bristol Myers Squibb anticipates a clinical readout for Cobenfy regarding Alzheimer’s disease psychosis.
Market Landscape
This assessment highlights the divergence in corporate strategy as major players confront the 2028 patent cliff expiration. By evaluating M&A integration and R&D pipelines, the report underscores the competitive pressure to replace billions in expiring annual revenue.
Investors and stakeholders should monitor the upcoming 2027 clinical readouts for Bristol Myers Squibb, which will impact the company's long-term valuation. Patients and providers may see shifts in drug availability as companies pivot their development focus toward newer pipeline assets.
The takeaway
Pharmaceutical companies must balance the acquisition of new growth assets with the need to derisk their pipelines before major patent expirations. Investors should watch closely as these companies transition their revenue models toward newer therapeutic targets.
Further reading
For more on the current state of the industry, visit the Healthcare section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Pharma.
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